[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 77 - set vs a nit

    • Csubakoppanny
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players

      MP: $32.64 (163.2 bb)
      CO: $14.50 (72.5 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $22.11 (110.6 bb)
      SB: $20.65 (103.2 bb)
      BB: $19.80 (99 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 7 7
      MP raises to $0.60, CO folds, Hero calls $0.60, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.50) K 8 7 (2 players)
      MP bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

      Turn: ($3) A (2 players)
      MP bets $1.50, Hero raises to $3, MP raises to $6.75, Hero raises to $20.76 and is all-in, MP calls $14.01

      River: ($44.52) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

      $44.52 pot ($2.22 rake)
      Final Board: K 8 7 A Q
      MP showed A A and won $42.30 ($20.19 net)
      Hero showed 7 7 and lost (-$22.11 net)

      Villain: 16/8/2.1 within 3.4K hands
      RFI EP/MP/CO/BU/SB: 6/9/16/27/7
      AF F/T/R: 1.66/2.21/2.21
      AFQ F/T/R: 28/32/19
      CB F/T/R: 78/29(24)/25(4)
      WTSD/W$SD: 25/66

      At the time of the hand I didn't realize what really tight he is and I thought it's a standard cooler... but after two days of thinking, I decided to post it here.
      Can I ever fold my (bottom) set in this spot?
      On the flop I didn't want to raise him.. it's a really dry flop and his cbet/fold stat is 100(3)
      My turn raise was a missclick but after he 3bet me I didn't think anything else then: "YEAH GET IT IN, YOU WILL PAY ME WITH YOUR AK!!!" :facepalm:

      Do you think he will ever have a wider range than this?

      Asztal: K:spade: 8:heart: 7:club:  A:heart:
             Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás
      MP2        46.59%  46.59%     0.00% { 7d7h }
      MP3        53.41%  53.41%     0.00% { KK+, 88, AKs, AKo }
  • 2 replies
    • w34z3l
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,330
      Hey Csubakoppanny,

      Villain is nitty. His range for continuing to turn check/raise is sets + AK, maybe AQ. However he doesn't 3bet AQ, and he possibly does not 3bet AK. If he doesn't 3bet AK it's a pretty straight-forward fold. Let's assume he does 3bet AK.

      Shoving is not the correct option. Vs AK/KK/88 you have ~47% equity. Your value shove is losing.

      At the very least you want to flat turn and check back the river. If villain bets the river you can call, but sometimes you save yourself money/variance by playing a smaller pot. Sometimes villain won't get all the money in, either because he simply doesn't bet big enough, or because he doesn't bet all when a heart falls or when he decides to get tricky.
    • Csubakoppanny
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      Thank you very much:)