[NL20-NL50] nl20Sh AJo otb

    • RasTweet
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Hey guys

      MP: 25/20 after 90 hands
      BB: 26/16 after 72 hands
      I have a note that he calls a 3b w/ QJs IP

      Pre: I didn't 3b pre because he looks like a reg and I don't think he'll call much worse OOP.

      Flop: Don't see to many reasons to raise here accept that the BB might come along and that would suck big time.

      Turn: Hit bet looks weak so I think if I raise he's going to fold all worse hands.

      River: Hmm I think I should valuebet here. I think I can bet small to get called from hands like 99+

      Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $20.60 (103 bb)
      SB: $8.36 (41.8 bb)
      BB: $32.47 (162.4 bb)
      UTG: $20.24 (101.2 bb)
      MP: $34.23 (171.1 bb)
      CO: $26 (130 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with A J
      UTG folds, MP raises to $0.60, CO folds, Hero calls $0.60, SB folds, BB calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.90) 8 A 4 (3 players)
      BB checks, MP bets $1.40, Hero calls $1.40, BB folds

      Turn: ($4.70) 2 (2 players)
      MP bets $2.30, Hero calls $2.30

      River: ($9.30) 3 (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero checks

      $9.30 pot ($0.46 rake)
      Final Board: 8 A 4 2 3
      Hero mucked A J and lost (-$4.30 net)
      MP showed A 8 and won $8.84 ($4.54 net)


  • 3 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897

      WHy do you call preflop though? AJo is very marginal against most MP ranges, most of the time it will be -EV imo, depending on who is in the blinds.

      As played pre, I wouldn't change postflop. If he is a reg and you call twice, you look like having a middle pair, Ax or a flushdraw that just got there on the river. If you bet, you have to turn bad middlepairs into a bluff for him to bluffcatch reasonable middle pairs, along with missed gutters that called twice. That is very unlikely so you will have a hard time getting value from his range. You will get called by worse sometimes, but not often enough imo. You also don't make him fold any of his Ax, that's for sure I'd say.
    • RasTweet
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Hey Manu

      I called pre because I think that vs his opening range I'm ahead and I have position.

      I quickly put a range together

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    48.52%  45.07%   3.45% { 22+, A8s+, KJs+, QTs+, JTs, A9o+, KJo+, QJo, JTo }
      MP3    51.48%  48.03%   3.45% { AhJs }
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      I think the range is a bit wrong but the equity is close anyway.. I would expect him to have a range like this more often:

             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    50.56%  47.20%   3.36% { AhJs }
      MP3    49.44%  46.08%   3.36% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, AJo+, KJo+, QJo }

      So no JTo, more suited stuff, including suited aces.

      Being flipping in equity and position will be OK but then you also have to consider people behind and how much do you win or lose when they get involved compared to when you stay HU.

      That said, if you add a few more hands to his range, then you are probably better off using AJo as a 3bet hand and flatting AJs, ATs, T9s type hands since their equity and playability are good and also you are 'safe' if you go multiway since their equity share increases with more players in the pot, while offsuit hands have less and less. It would be interesting if someone called some offsuit broadway IP a lot and can ship some info from a big database. Maybe I'm missing something there since common beliefs are that calling there won't be best play.

      Btw, almost forgot.. Postflop is fine but sizing mattered a lot for it to be fine. If he bombs flop and turn after being 3 way on the flop I would be a lot more inclined to fold. This gives us better odds against his range overall and make me less likely to believe he has a nutted hand that wants to not get sucked out on.