[NL2-NL10] NL5SH - AKo 3b pot vs NIT

    • muel294
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,205
      Preflop: Plan was to just 3b and get it in vs a 4b even against such a tight player. Plus I don't really know that much about his 4b'ing tendencies. Against a full stack I might just flat the raise or 3b/fold since. I think with a half stack he will be more likely to 4b some weaker hands or 4b bluff shove.

      Is this a reasonable assumption against such a player or would you prefer flatting or 3b/fold line even vs a 1/2 stack?

      As played....

      I expected villains range to be something like:

      for opening the BU and when he calls my 3b:

      I don't think that his range is capped for calling the 3b because I think he is capable flatting QQ+ and AK.

      Flop: I decided to just x/f this flop since I think villains range mainly consists of PP's ( that are now either: and OP / set ) and some weaker overcards that will not float very often. So I can't really "value bet" and would be trying to bluff a strong range that is unlikely to fold. I can barrell the turn on some overcards Q/K/A I guess.

      Villain's overall PFR was 8% which corresponds to:

      Villain was opening 14% 15/104 from the BU which corresponds to:

      and 27% "1st in" 13/49 which corresponds to:

      When making an analysis of villains range from (especially in the equilab) which of these ranges is most applicable? I ask this because although villain raised 1st in from the BU. I find it difficult to believe that 27% range would be very accurate to go off. I would be more incline to go with the figure of 14%. However, I am getting the feeling that doing this is giving me a skewed perception of villains actual range.

      PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      UTG: 39.6 BB (VPIP: 4.35, PFR: 4.35, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
      MP: 78 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 7.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 27)
      CO: 46 BB (VPIP: 48.28, PFR: 34.48, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 31)
      BTN: 43.6 BB (VPIP: 12.17, PFR: 7.84, 3Bet Preflop: 2.45, Hands: 733) 4b 25% (1/4)
      SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 12.90, PFR: 11.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 127)
      Hero (BB): 125 BB

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has K:club: A:spade:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, BTN calls 6 BB

      Flop: (18.4 BB, 2 players) 8:spade: 9:heart: 7:club:
      Hero checks, BTN bets 9 BB, fold

      BTN wins 17.6 BB
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      As villain looks like a MSS player, 3bet/stacking off is definitely the best play here.
      When he calls preflop, I think his range is mostly having PPs plus probably some hands like AQ/AJs, so without any reads on his postflop play, I would check/fold this flop as well.

      About the ranges - we should look at his steal at the button %. I think that 27% is reasonable amount for stealing from the button (if he is good player he will steal more), but you have to think more deeper for the villain's range, rather than just put in the top 27% of the hands.
      For example, don't you think it's quite more likely for villain to open 22-44 than K5s-K7s?