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[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH -AQo: cbet flop?

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      45/15
      38% fold vs cbet flop
      48% wwsf
      1.4 af
      16% wtsd
      99 hands

      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $8.33 (16.7 bb)
      SB: $101.92 (203.8 bb)
      BB: $45.70 (91.4 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $50 (100 bb)
      MP: $20 (40 bb)
      CO: $36.79 (73.6 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q A
      Hero raises to $1.50, MP folds, CO calls $1.50, 3 folds

      Flop: ($3.75) 5 T 8 (2 players)
      Hero

      I have overs and runner nut flush, but i find that in this boards i have very low fold equity... so...
  • 2 replies
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      How does he respond to double and triple barrels? I assume he is not folding pocket pairs on flop and will get sticky with a lot of them on turn.

      I've been experimenting recently with barelling backdoor draws, and making 1/2pot or even less river bets vs these calling station type players (note his wtsd%). I can't say for certain but it seems to be working pretty nicely so far. (although it is nasty OOP)


      I don't know how to calculate the ev possibilities but we can look at how many cards we can fire turn on:

      any :heart: , any J, Q K or A

      Thats 24 cards out of 47 remaining which seems like a good amount to me, add to that I'm starting to believe we have great fold equity vs these players on our third barrel it seems to me that its a great spot to cbet if you don't mind some variance.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Lunitis,

      I feel that our hand is strong enough to cbet and since he doesn't fold much we can even consider it as a light valuebet.

      It's true that the board is somewhat connected but I don't think it's a mistake betting ~2/3 pot.