[NL20-NL50] NL25 Zoom KK OOP

    • Absolutism
      Joined: 09.08.2008 Posts: 4,372
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $26.49 (106 bb)
      SB: $25 (100 bb)
      BB: $25 (100 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $30.56 (122.2 bb)
      MP: $13.20 (52.8 bb)
      CO: $29.52 (118.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with K K
      Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) Q 3 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1, BTN calls $1

      Turn: ($3.85) 5 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

      River: ($6.85) 4 (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.25, BTN raises to $12, Hero folds

      $15.35 pot ($0.69 rake)
      Final Board: Q 3 3 5 4
      BTN mucked and won $14.66 ($7.16 net)
      Hero mucked K K and lost (-$7.50 net)

      Villain is pretty much unknown, but seems very fishy (22/0, AF:1.3, 27 hands).

      The small flop bet is i think standard, the board is too dry. He tanked a bit, and then called, so i thought its more likely that he has a 66-JJ, than a Q, thats why i bet pretty small at turn.

      River: pretty much every draw busted (only A2 or 67 has a straight here, which is very unlikely, FD's have missed), so im pretty confident about my hand here. Because i expect 66-TT to fold here a lot, i decided to bet a bit bigger, so if he has a Q, he calls me anyway, and maybe he will think im bluffing and call with a 99 anyways.

      His raise is superstrong i think, he can have 3's here, or some full houses, so i folded.

      Maybe i should bet the turn bigger, and the river smaller?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      Villain seems fishy? Just bet bigger on every street. No need to bother about balance or betting small cos board is dry. our aim here is simply to maximize our value against QX hands

      Flop: Bet 1.40 here
      Turn (4.65$): bet 80% pot again, maybe something like 3.50$
      River (11.65$): Bet 80% pot again on the River and fold to a raise.

      Basically with my bet sizing strategy and assuming the villain is pretty fishy and rarely folds QX, I would have gotten $15 worth of value, whereas in this case assuming villain merely calls with QX here you would get only around 7.50$.

      Of course I'm assuming that
      -We are always ahead (i think we are very far ahead but of course villain can have some 3X/55/44 combos)
      -Our bet size doesn't change his calling frequency (it definitely does but I would argue that he is bet-size inelastic, meaning that an increase in bet size here cause a smaller than proportionate decrease in his calling frequency).