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[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH 33 folded set

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($16.44)
      BB ($14.40)
      UTG ($17.29)
      CO ($37.69)
      Hero ($28.66)

      Dealt to Hero 3:club: 3:heart:

      fold, CO raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.60, fold, fold

      FLOP ($1.50) 3:spade: 8:heart: Q:spade:

      CO bets $1, Hero raises to $2.70, CO raises to $4.40, Hero calls $1.70

      TURN ($10.30) 3:spade: 8:heart: Q:spade: T:heart:

      CO bets $7, Hero calls $7

      RIVER ($24.30) 3:spade: 8:heart: Q:spade: T:heart: 9:heart:

      CO bets $25.69 (AI), Hero folds

      CO wins $23.09



      blinds fish

      note:
      can c/r big in 3way Axx, donk turn 2/3 and fold to raise when 30bb is left

      I did not 3bet preflop because session stats was showing my 3bet about 25% and he is tight from CO and there is fish in blinds.

      On flop I guess I have to rasie much bigger becasue there can be draws and when he makes small 3bet - he is not probably having QQ or 88.

      I was thinking - he is tight from CO so he should rarely have Q8 and Q3, so I don't want to get all my stack with bottom set. By was not thinking about his sizings.

      So could be that I made nitty fold. He might not even be having a striaght on river because he would not make on flop a 3bet with GS. He could maybe use this scary river for bluff. But thats really huge then. I am not sure.

      Also with QQ or 88 he should not bet that big. But who knows - maybe he really did bluff 3bet with GS and hit turn or river.

      There could be AQs which is a flush on river.
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      Flop: He could have some overpairs on the Flop perhaps, though it's less likely given stack depth. Anyway I would either jam Flop or Turn

      Turn: So many draws out there, you definitely have to jam turn now. Even if you were mostly isolating vs higher sets, I still think you have to do it especially if he has a ton of draws here. If you don't jam the Turn, I think almost half the deck will be bad for you (spade/heart/9/J)
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,150
      I was thinking I don't want to overplay bottom set, I am 140bb deep.

      How deep should I be to start going for pot control instead of jamming flop or turn in this situation?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hi.

      I thought this was NL25 so I thought you were only slightly deep. This favours flatting the flop 3bet a lot more. I still think you should jam the Turn though, especially if villain's range is wide enough.