[NL2-NL10] NL5SH AA - OP 3b pot mono board vs small F raise

    • muel294
      Joined: 06.06.2009 Posts: 1,225
      Villain was pretty much unknown at the time of the hand but I had marked him as a recreational player since he did not sit with a full stack nor auto top up and had limped into a couple of pots already.

      Preflop: Standard until I get cold called by the BU. I expected him to 4b QQ+ for value given his stack size so I think he would CC something like the following IP:

      Flop: Not good for me since I have no redraw. Plan here was bet/broke clearly but I'm not so sure I should be taking this line vs a small raise OTF. I think he would shove draws to maximize fold equity, so when he makes a smaller raise I feel he would only do this with something like the following range:

      Board: 8:spade: 7:spade: 6:spade:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      CO     38.43%  36.30%   2.12% { AhAc }
      BU     61.57%  59.45%   2.12% { JJ-99, 8d8h, 8d8c, 8h8c, 7d7h, 7d7c, 7h7c, AsKs, AsQs, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, QsJs, AsTs }

      Basically 99-JJ (some of which still have outs against me) or sets and flushes ( the latter which have me drawing dead).

      Am I being too results orientated here or giving villains too much credit for not shoving some FD's here? Eg, AsXx KsXx

      PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      SB: $4.35
      BB: $11.58
      UTG: $6.11
      MP: $6.08
      Hero (CO): $5.00
      BTN: $3.56

      SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A:club: A:heart:

      UTG raises to $0.15, fold, Hero raises to $0.46, BTN calls $0.46, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: ($1.14, 2 players) 8:spade: 7:spade: 6:spade:
      Hero bets $0.80, BTN raises to $1.95, Hero raises to $4.54 and is all-in, BTN calls $1.15 and is all-in

      Turn: ($7.34, 2 players) 4:diamond:

      River: ($7.34, 2 players) 3:spade:

      Hero shows A:club: A:heart: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 82%, Flop 3%, Turn 0%)
      BTN shows K:spade: Q:spade: (Flush, King High) (Pre 18%, Flop 97%, Turn 100%)
      BTN wins $7.04
  • 1 reply
    • cutegoldfish
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      i think this hand is a fold after getting raised on the flop.

      this guy is pretty passive and when he raises its usually a very strong hand so im guessing the minimum he has is nut draw plus pair and 2p set hands and a tonne of flush

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 22.43% 19.03% 3.40% AhAc
      MP3 77.57% 74.17% 3.40% 88-66, 86s+, 76s, KsQs, AsJs, KsJs, AsTs, KsTs, As9s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, 86o+, 76o, As8d, As8h, As8c, 9s8c

      as you can see you are completely crushed. however with the A :spade: here im going in because we have the redraw.