[NL20-NL50] nl25, sh 99

    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,337
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BB: $26.28 (105.1 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $25 (100 bb)
      MP: $33.02 (132.1 bb)
      CO: $21.85 (87.4 bb)
      BTN: $44.55 (178.2 bb)
      SB: $30.60 (122.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9 9
      Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, 4 folds

      Flop: ($1.85) 4 K 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.10, MP raises to $3.87, Hero folds

      villain is 11/8 over 166 hands. pretty sure i'm beaten here but i'm always a little bit suspicious in these spots because the flop is so dry... why the hell would somebody want to raise their set on this texture?

      which brings me to the question, if villain wasn't so nitty (maybe he has something like 24/22 stats, or maybe even fishy stats) should we give less credit here? i'm sure most people would rather call down with a Kx hand which means they are really polarised with the raise. the problem for me is im playing the rest of the hand OOP and the board is likely to get worse... so maybe i should be folding for that reason alone?
  • 1 reply
    • cutegoldfish
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      while i dont expect him to raise sets here on this dry flop, i dont think hes aware of the board and probably playing his sets overpair maybe TP the same way on all boards which is to raise and ill give him credit for a strong hand and fold. the MP vs UTG position is also usually played pretty straightforward

      if he was wider and bluffy i think its still tough to call because the hand could get worse for us and our hand only has 2 outs to improve and he could show further aggression. in the positions MP vs UTG hes usually also calling a strong hand and not bluffing so often on the flop. if we have good reason to believe hes bluffing i would rather take a hand like 78 and raise over his re-raise as a bluff because we have 5 outs to improve and can bet again on the A