[NL20-NL50] nl25 sh AK

    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $28.76 (115 bb)
      MP: $25 (100 bb)
      CO: $25 (100 bb)
      BTN: $25.91 (103.6 bb)
      SB: $22.37 (89.5 bb)
      Hero (BB): $25.85 (103.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K A
      UTG folds, MP raises to $0.75, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2.35, MP calls $1.60

      Flop: ($4.80) 8 3 8 (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.50, MP folds

      villain is 25/19 over 73 hands. cant really say much about his reactions to 3bets over this sample but he's folded 3 times and called 2.

      first off i find myself questioning what to do preflop here. vs this guy, if i were in CO or BU i'd most likely flat IP especially if there are aggressive guys behind.. i also think 3bet/folding isnt so great with AK (is this right :f_confused: ) but if i 3bet and get 4bet im really not liking the situation because im most likely behind and i doubt there is too much bluffing going on from these positions. so then the other option for playing OOP would be flat OOP and play postflop - which i've seen a lot. but i'm a bit fishy postflop so and i dont like the idea of just calling to hit and playing fit/fold in this spot... so what do you think, 3bet/??? or flat OOP?

      and postflop here i don't expect to get much credit. so when i cbet i think i should barrel... the only problem is if i DO get called i'm most likely going to get into trouble later in the hand. also my barrel cards might end up smashing villain's range...

      overall not really sure how to play this hand :D

      ty
  • 5 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DrDunne,

      Preflop: If you don't expect villain to 4-bet bluff much (and I agree that in these spots its less likely) then you can't ship AKo over his 4-bet.

      You need him to either bluff about 1 in 4 times or 4-bet/call hands like AQo to at least breakeven with your hand.

      However, that doesn't mean we can't 3-bet for value versus his calling range which is most likely better than calling and playing this OOP without initiative.

      Postflop: As played I think that cbet is fine and one more barrel is fine as well. Our equity, if called, is not the greatest but he can probably float here with overcards that have draws/backdoors.
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      one more barrel is fine as well. Our equity, if called, is not the greatest but he can probably float here with overcards that have draws/backdoors.
      if i get called here i'm probably check/folding any :diamond: and any card which is a T or below. are you suggesting barrel any turn?
      thanks
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by DrDunne
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      one more barrel is fine as well. Our equity, if called, is not the greatest but he can probably float here with overcards that have draws/backdoors.
      if i get called here i'm probably check/folding any :diamond: and any card which is a T or below. are you suggesting barrel any turn?
      thanks
      What do you think his range is for calling us? List it if you have time please (and you can even list combos). That should answer your question :)
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,338
      hmm preflop i think he will call IP with something like this:
      JJ-99,AQs-AJs,KQs,AQo

      although maybe he won't have AJs...

      on the flop facing a cbet i reckon he'd probably still continue with a lot of combos... i put my thoughts into a spoiler so it is less cluttered :D

      maybe he calls his A:diamond: Qx (3 combos)
      if he calls these he'll also call A:diamond: Q:diamond: , A:diamond: J:diamond: and K:diamond: Q:diamond: ,K:club: Q:club: (4 combos)
      and he obviously won't fold 99-JJ (18 combos) which i'm not doing terribly against...

      so from this range: JJ-99,AQs-AJs,KQs,AQo

      he folds 6 AQo combos, 2 AQs and AJs combos and 1 KQs combo (9 combos)
      he continues with 3 AQo combos, his AQs, AJs and KQs combos plus his 99-JJ (22 combos)

      which means he's getting to the turn with a range like this:
      JJ-99, A:diamond: Q:diamond: , K:diamond: Q:diamond: , K:club: Q:club: , A:diamond: J:diamond: , A:diamond: Q:heart: , A:diamond: Q:spade: , A:diamond: Q:club:


      so with this range: JJ-99, A:diamond: Q:diamond: , K:diamond: Q:diamond: , K:club: Q:club: , A:diamond: J:diamond: , A:diamond: Q:heart: , A:diamond: Q:spade: , A:diamond: Q:club:

      i opened the scenario analyser. im still a fish with it but it seems like all non A or K turns are pretty much equal in terms of our equity (besides any :diamond: ) - which is obvious, but that doesnt mean we have any more FE than we did on the flop... and in fact we should be giving up on any Q since it improves his range the most. but he may still peel us with his FDs that miss. he might fold a few of his BDFDs but that's it... so i still don't really see why we should expect any FE on a 2 for example as opposed to a J or T.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by DrDunne
      so i still don't really see why we should expect any FE on a 2 for example as opposed to a J or T.
      Good work on the breakdown.

      Are you implying that I said it would be better to bet a lower card rather than a big card or are you doubting your own thoughts from earlier in the analysis?

      I would also consider adding a few combos of pairs under the 8 because some people call those for one street as well.