[NL2-NL10] NL2 AKo vs 3bet

    • Dawidas888
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      MP1: $2.06 - 103 bb
      MP2: $4.54 - 227 bb
      MP3: $1.40 - 70 bb
      CO: $2.50 - 125 bb
      BU: $1.94 - 97 bb
      SB: $0.84 - 42 bb
      BB: $2.10 - 105 bb

      0.01/0.02 No Limit Hold'em (7 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.411.6

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A:club: , K:diamond:
      SB posts small blind ($0.01), BB posts big blind ($0.02), Hero raises for $0.08, MP2 3-bets $0.48, 5 folds, Hero folds, MP2 gets uncalled back ($0.40)

      Opponent seemed fairly tight, didn't see any crazy things from him + he has more than 100BB (meaning that he is possibly better than the average NL2 player).

      #1 My assumption is that he is 3betting in this spot with a tight range: QQ+, AK.

      The pot odds are roughly 3:2 ($0.59:$0.40) meaning that I need at least 40% of equity to call.

      I cannot 4bet/shove, because pokerstrategy equilator gives me only 38.82% equity against this fairly tight range and I need 48.65% quity to breakeven ($2.09:$1.98).
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 38.82% 18.15% 20.68% { AcKd }
      MP3 61.18% 40.50% 20.68% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

      Considering that I am out of position calling is not good because according to this thread there is only a 32.4% chance that I will have some sort of a made hand on the flop and even then I may not be ahead.

      So based on this assumption I cannot 4bet/shove.

      #2 Another assumption is that is 3betting range is slightly wider: TT+, AQ+.

      Theoretically I could 4bet/shove in this situation, because pokerstrategy equilator gives me 49.18% of equity (and I need 48.65%).
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 49.18% 38.86% 10.32% { AcKd }
      MP3 50.82% 40.50% 10.32% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

      However, if we discount the rake it may be -EV?

      And I still can't call for previous reasons.

      So based on second assumption I still cannot call nor can I 4bet/shove.

      The question: is my line of thought correct here? Is folding really the best option here given that it is unlikely this opponent is bluffing?
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      I think folding is perfectly fine here. We are OOP and the opponent makes a huge raise, so there's no point in continuing here with this hand, since his range is likely to be really strong.
      I'd only continue here with KK+.