[NL2-NL10] NL16SH 43s BB call vs BU........

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
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      BTN: $16.82
      SB: $31.12
      Hero (BB): $16.86
      UTG: $14.32
      CO: $22.11

      Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is BB with 4 :heart: 3 :heart:
      2 folds, BTN raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.24

      Flop: ($0.88) 6 :spade: 8 :heart: 5 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.56, BTN calls $0.56

      Turn: ($2.00) 9 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.60, BTN folds




      Villain is 23/16 on 200 hands 44% BU Steal and folded to 5/6 3bets so far.

      I think If I wanted to play this it should have been a re-steal and have no idea why I took this line. That said, how do you play this hand postflop after hitting one of the best flops we could hope for? Villain seems to cbet roughly 55%.
  • 10 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DaPhunk,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I agree with your line here and if he called turn we can bet some high card rivers.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Thanks.

      I'm trying to redesign my defending range on the blinds vs a steal. What sort of range do you like calling over 3betting BB vs BU or CO who steals the "normal" aggressive range?

      What range do you call on SB in the same spot when BB doesn't squeeze much and are you still calling some hands when he does squeeze a lot?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by DaPhunk
      Thanks.

      I'm trying to redesign my defending range on the blinds vs a steal. What sort of range do you like calling over 3betting BB vs BU or CO who steals the "normal" aggressive range?

      What range do you call on SB in the same spot when BB doesn't squeeze much and are you still calling some hands when he does squeeze a lot?
      This is a very broad question because we have a lot of factors to consider:

      1) Villain and his ranges (for calling 3-bets, raising preflop, etc)
      2) Stack sizes
      3) Open size
      4) Are we in SB or BB

      But lets take one example:

      Villain raises 60% on the button and folds 70% to 3-bets from the BTN. Let's assume he is not fancy postflop.

      We can call quite a few hands versus such a guy in the BB but I'd keep it at hands that have more playability OOP (since we don't have specific reads). Since he doesn't call 3-bets too light we are going to 3-bet JJ+, AQ+ for value, and call other pairs, broadways, suited aces and possibly some smaller connectors. And we 3-bet as a bluff hands like suited gappers/2-gappers and other hands that are at the top of our folding range.

      Of course there's a lot more information that we need to look at and try to "optimize our ranges". We look at how he plays postflop, how does he play in 3-bet pots or regular pots, etc.

      I recommend that you look in your DB and give me an example of a player/scenario and then give me your ranges and we can work on them together.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      I shall try and approximate what I think are some typical villain range values that I see most regularly:

      Foldvs3bet, I think that a lot of regs are around the 50% mark, some under some a little over, but I will say 50 to 55% fold on both BU and CO.

      Steal: Although you often see regs go up to 60% steal I think the mode figure would have to be 45% on BU and 35 to 40% steal on CO.

      4betrange: this varies a hell of a lot but if I were to take a guess at I'd say the most common 4bet range is going to be around 2.5%.

      Fold vs cbet IP: 40%, fold vs cbet in 3bet pot: 40 to 45%, I'm not sure on fold to 2nd barrel or 3rd barrel tbh, but my guess is that its got to be pretty high given how little some of these guys fold on flops that don't hit our range.

      So villain:

      Steal CO: 38%, Steal BU: 45%
      Foldvs3bet: 55%, 4betrange: 2.5%
      Fold vs cbet In position: 40%, Fold vs bet in 3bet pots: 45%

      I approximate that I make my range as follows:

      3bet/Jam JJ+ AK. 3bet/fold 99, TT ATs+ AJo+ KQ and A2s-A5s.

      Call = 22-TT, AT, KTs+ QTs+ JTs


      Case 2:


      Here is an unusual case I have a lot of hands on:



      I extend my value range and just 3bet all my playable hands vs this guy. Then I try and valuetown him when I have top pair or better.

      I looked at the report on this dude and on this small sample he is doing very well on the blinds, but seems to bleed money in the normal positions. A bit weird that I'm wondering if he is doing something right when he's defending his blinds after some spazzy looking plays I've seen him make.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Some other odd news, I reviewed all my hands since November and checked my coldcall on the blinds vs Late position and went into hand-groupings. I removed hands until all the categories had winrates worse than -85 to -90 bb/100 to find the range I did better than folding with.

      I found the following range of hands which include hands definately not in my standard calling range:

      22+ Axs 54s+ 86s+ T7s+ KTs+ A9o+ K9o+ QTo+

      Do you think there could be merit to defending a similar range more as standard when someones steal gets over 45% or so?
    • pnkthrepwood
      pnkthrepwood
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      Joined: 28.01.2011 Posts: 632
      Originally posted by DaPhunk
      Some other odd news, I reviewed all my hands since November and checked my coldcall on the blinds vs Late position and went into hand-groupings. I removed hands until all the categories had winrates worse than -85 to -90 bb/100 to find the range I did better than folding with.

      I found the following range of hands which include hands definately not in my standard calling range:

      22+ Axs 54s+ 86s+ T7s+ KTs+ A9o+ K9o+ QTo+

      Do you think there could be merit to defending a similar range more as standard when someones steal gets over 45% or so?
      I think it's ok, that range has a ~50% equity over a 45% range.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by DaPhunk
      I shall try and approximate what I think are some typical villain range values that I see most regularly:

      Foldvs3bet, I think that a lot of regs are around the 50% mark, some under some a little over, but I will say 50 to 55% fold on both BU and CO.

      Steal: Although you often see regs go up to 60% steal I think the mode figure would have to be 45% on BU and 35 to 40% steal on CO.

      4betrange: this varies a hell of a lot but if I were to take a guess at I'd say the most common 4bet range is going to be around 2.5%.

      Fold vs cbet IP: 40%, fold vs cbet in 3bet pot: 40 to 45%, I'm not sure on fold to 2nd barrel or 3rd barrel tbh, but my guess is that its got to be pretty high given how little some of these guys fold on flops that don't hit our range.

      So villain:

      Steal CO: 38%, Steal BU: 45%
      Foldvs3bet: 55%, 4betrange: 2.5%
      Fold vs cbet In position: 40%, Fold vs bet in 3bet pots: 45%

      I approximate that I make my range as follows:

      3bet/Jam JJ+ AK. 3bet/fold 99, TT ATs+ AJo+ KQ and A2s-A5s.

      Call = 22-TT, AT, KTs+ QTs+ JTs
      First off, I think it's unrealistic to expect an average person to steal that much on the CO and just a little more on the BTN. I think 30%->50% is a bit more accurate but we can use this as an example.

      So if they open 45% in the BTN and fold to 3-bets just 45% that means that they continue (either call or 4-bet) with almost 25% of their hands.

      So if someone continues with that much and rarely 4-bets (2.5% range is not great at all - look at what % AK, QQ+ is, AK, JJ+) then we could 3-bet a lot more for value, right?





      Case 2:


      Here is an unusual case I have a lot of hands on:



      I extend my value range and just 3bet all my playable hands vs this guy. Then I try and valuetown him when I have top pair or better.

      I looked at the report on this dude and on this small sample he is doing very well on the blinds, but seems to bleed money in the normal positions. A bit weird that I'm wondering if he is doing something right when he's defending his blinds after some spazzy looking plays I've seen him make.
      If you look at his fold to cbet stats he is folding a ton by the end of the river.

      48% -> 48% -> 69%

      We will take a rough example just so I can illustrate my point:

      RFI BTN: 54%
      F3bet: 36% (we should really look at how often he folds BTN to 3-bets, may be less or more).
      4-bet: 11%

      He calss 54% * 0.53 = 28.62% - of course we don't really know if he calls AQ or 4-bets AQ since we don't have info.

      So now we can look at equilab and see how this 28.62 can look like.

      But for the sake of the argument,

      Fold to flop cbet: 48%

      -> average range on turn: 14.9%

      Fold to turn cbet: 48%

      -> average range on river: 7.7%

      Fold to river cbet: 69%

      -> average range that calls river: 2.4% (or less than 10% of his flop range)


      Of course this is all assuming those numbers are always true which is not the case (for one those fold to cbets are in regular pots + 3bet pots, however his fold to cbet in 3-bet is 47%)

      So what does this tell us? That we can't valuebet thin 3-streets but we can bluff 3-streets.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      for some reason the forum posted this twice when I tried to edit it....
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      positionally he folds 39% on BU and 35% on CO so far. (reads: he OR/Calls K2s on BU for example) His fold vs double barrel in 3bet pots is 15/30 but interestingly fold vs double barrel IP in 3bet pots is 6/7 times.

      He still folded 3/4 times vs Triple barrel in 3bet pots as well. I have some more specific positional stats etc if you think of any more that could be useful to look into?

      I noticed his high fold vs river barrel stat and I believe he likes to chase draws even more vs myself as I barrel a lot of turns. It just means I now frequently fire river when there are multiple missed draws on the board.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by DaPhunk
      positionally he folds 39% on BU and 35% on CO so far. (reads: he OR/Calls K2s on BU for example) His fold vs double barrel in 3bet pots is 15/30 but interestingly fold vs double barrel IP in 3bet pots is 6/7 times.

      He still folded 3/4 times vs Triple barrel in 3bet pots as well. I have some more specific positional stats etc if you think of any more that could be useful to look into?

      I noticed his high fold vs river barrel stat and I believe he likes to chase draws even more vs myself as I barrel a lot of turns. It just means I now frequently fire river when there are multiple missed draws on the board.
      I wouldn't assume it's just draws that he chases.

      A lot of people also call/float lighter on two streets imagining that you would slow down on the river (which most people definitely do).

      So I would put it beyond a player like him to call 2nd pair on flop/turn and fold river.