[NL2-NL10] NL10 KTo

    • hingpoker
      hingpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2011 Posts: 33
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP3: $3.85 (38.5 bb)
      CO: $10.05 (100.5 bb)
      BTN: $11.52 (115.2 bb)
      SB: $2 (20 bb)
      BB: $14.04 (140.4 bb)
      UTG+2: $4.75 (47.5 bb)
      Hero (MP1): $10.10 (101 bb)
      MP2: $4.10 (41 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K T
      UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, CO calls $0.40, 3 folds

      Flop: ($0.95) 7 J 9 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.50, CO calls $0.50

      Turn: ($1.95) Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $1.20, CO calls $1.20

      River: ($4.35) Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.40, CO raises to $7.95 and is all-in, Hero folds

      Results: $9.15 pot ($0.41 rake)
      Final Board: 7 J 9 Q Q
      CO mucked and won $8.74 ($4.24 net)
      Hero mucked K T and lost (-$4.50 net)

      He's pretty tight with 14/7/2. I probably shouldn't have raised on the river but should i have folded the river?
  • 4 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      He is mostly repping KT and QJ here. I still think he can have stuff like QJ/QT so I would not fold the River.

      1) Nut Straight
      Board: 7dJs9cQdQh
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 50.00% 36.36% 13.64% { KsTs }
      MP3 50.00% 36.36% 13.64% { JJ, KTs, QTs+, T8s }

      Don't see how we can ever fold here with the nut straight

      2) 2nd Nut Straight
      Board: 7dJs9cQdQh
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 22.73% 9.09% 13.64% { Ts8s }
      MP3 77.27% 63.64% 13.64% { JJ, KTs, QTs+, T8s }

      This would be a fold, since you do not have enough odds.

      Note that I did not even include KQ which should tip the scales in favour of calling.
    • hingpoker
      hingpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2011 Posts: 33
      What about him having hit 77s or 99s and slow playing?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Well it's still a call. IMO 77 and 99 will raise the Turn really often. this is pretty much the worst case scenario and despite that because we are chopping with KTs, and beating T8s, we have more than enough equity to call.

      http://www.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: 7dJs9cQdQh
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 32.35% 23.53% 8.82% { KsTs }
      MP3 67.65% 58.82% 8.82% { JJ, 99, 77, KTs, QTs+, T8s }

      Pot odds = 5.50 / 20 = ~27.5%
    • hingpoker
      hingpoker
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2011 Posts: 33
      Thanks