[NL20-NL50] NL20 SH Q3s bluff on river

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Silver
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,119
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      SB ($39.58)
      BB ($17.80)
      UTG ($20)
      CO ($20.30)
      Hero ($29.64)

      Dealt to Hero 3:spade: Q:spade:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, SB calls $0.30, fold

      FLOP ($1) A:club: T:diamond: T:spade:

      SB checks, Hero checks

      TURN ($1) A:club: T:diamond: T:spade: 8:spade:

      SB bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

      RIVER ($2) A:club: T:diamond: T:spade: 8:spade: 4:heart:

      SB checks, Hero bets $1, SB folds

      Hero shows 3:spade: Q:spade:

      Hero wins $1.90

      38/26, agf. fr 58, 48h

      notes:
      mr in MP, call 3bet IP w 98s, raise cbeet big w GS on Axx mono, and checks till sd - AGRO W WEAK DRAW
      call big c/r w bottom pair + BDFD IP, calls pot w fd - LOOSE BLUFFCATCH ON FLOP

      On turn I decided not to raise - in case he has Tx, he might be reraising and I will have to fold.

      On river I felt weakness from him, but really he has to have a bluff. Otherwise he is not folding. Since I don't beat all his bluffs - better Qc for example - I can bluff and he will fold those.
  • 4 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      flop - i think we can CB this flop profitably and hes folding a tonne on such dry boards

      turn - as played i think its a call, i dont see any draws that could bet fold here.

      river - i dont like the bluffbet, if he hes has a bluff i think we are ahead sometimes with Q high. he could have worse hands. and do you think he would fold any pair if we bet? or K high? i would expect him to call with any pair and maybe even K high so i prefer taking a showdown with Qhigh. with a weaker hand like 67s though i would prefer a bet as a bluff.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Silver
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,119
      and do you think he would fold any pair if we bet? or K high?


      Pair he would call most likely, but K high I think he folds most of the time. He should really expect me bluffing a lot.
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      How often does he have K high? Compared to weaker hands? Since pairs are calling the only hand we are bluffing on the river is K high and I think it's a small part of his range and makes this a bad bluff.

      Cgf
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Silver
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,119
      Originally posted by cutegoldfish
      How often does he have K high? Compared to weaker hands? Since pairs are calling the only hand we are bluffing on the river is K high and I think it's a small part of his range and makes this a bad bluff.

      Cgf
      I have no idea what the ratio is between pairs and K high, but also there are better Qx which beat me, so we should include those which we want to fold.