[NL20-NL50] NL50 - Royal flushdraw 3b pot

    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hi all,

      Villain:
      21/19/276h
      26% CO open, 5/7 foldtoresteal (2/7 4bet).
      I don't know how this is possible but I do not have foldtocbet info lol
      18 wtsd 60w$sd (nitty)

      I think people will not bluffraise all too often on this flop so I wasn't happy to get it in here.. I could be dead sometimes. I also though folding sucks so I called. My hand is face up now right? Well we can also play AA like this I guess

      Ready to x/f turn

      I think he took a pretty polarizing line with his hand so I don't see why we should bluff on the river. We even splitt with AK which his a likely bluff.

      Just fold?

      Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2174471
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $27.05
      Hero (SB): $179.46
      BB: $57.02
      UTG: $85.69
      MP: $56.10
      CO: $57.13

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with T :diamond: A :diamond:
      2 folds, CO raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, CO calls $3.50

      Flop: ($10.50) J :heart: J :diamond: Q :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $6, CO raises to $14, Hero calls $8

      Turn: ($38.50) 5 :club: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      River: ($38.50) 5 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $22.06, Hero folds
  • 6 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      This is a 3bet pot and we have a good combodraw. I would definitely just jam it on the Flop and not feel too bad about it. Sometimes we beat some draws like 9d8d or KTs, sometimes he just folds his gutshot bluffs like AT.

      Even if we are wrong about him being capable of bluffing, we are never too far behind with so much equity.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      We are pretty far behind v value :/

      nl.pokerstrategy.com
      Board: JhJdQd
      Equity Winst Split
      MP2 21.63% 21.40% 0.23% { AdTd }
      MP3 78.37% 78.14% 0.23% { QhQs, AJs, KJs, QJs }
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Not sure why you are being so pessimistic in your assumptions

      1. QQ would 4bet preflop
      2. If he has QQ and QJ he would never raise the Flop after crushing the board so hard
      3. You did not include any worse draws in his range. I think at lower limits people do raise/push OESDs and FDs in 3b pots a lot, maybe way more than they should.
      4. IMO people will also flat trips a good amount of the time.

      You also didn't account for FE, which I think you have if he is bluff raising some % of the time. We probably need around 35% equity vs his value range, and some fold equity for our play to be breakeven and I think that's probably the case here.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      But do people bluffraise on such a flop? With which hands? I also block all combodraws he could raise except 89dd but that's not too strong right?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I don't know how often people actually bluff raise. Bad players love bluffing at paired flops. You're right that he can't have too many combo draws, but sometimes you'll see 76s or KT raise/pushing the Flop.

      In short, I'll just say that you are being super pessimistic here.
    • Farmarchist
      Farmarchist
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      ok ok ty :f_grin: