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[NL2-NL10] NL16SH 44 set facing river raise of 3rd barrel

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $29.65
      Hero (UTG): $16.00
      CO: $16.04
      BTN: $24.40
      SB: $91.42

      Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is UTG with 4 :heart: 4 :club:
      Hero raises to $0.48, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.48, 2 folds

      Flop: ($1.20) A :club: 4 :diamond: 9 :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.88, BTN calls $0.88

      Turn: ($2.96) K :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.08, BTN calls $2.08

      River: ($7.12) J :spade: (2 players)
      Hero bets $4.56, BTN raises to $20.92, Hero folds

      Villain is 77/23 on 55 hands. He does look like he'll have high aggression for his vpip but its still under 50% and I just can't be sure yet.

      I guess there may be one or two suicidal bluffs in there and he may overvalue A9 or AK or something but its probably not enough to call.
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      I think it's a call but let's see. Any stats on fold to F cbet? I think your sample would be low but having something like 0 out of 3 folds would be helpful for us to guess how wide he's floating on the Flop. The lower the number, the worse it is for us (more backdoor floats)

      He did not 3bet you, I think we should heavily discount JJ/KK/AA/AK.

      1) Optimistic range
      Board: Ac4d9sKsJs
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 57.69% 57.69% 0.00% { 99, AKs, AJs, AsQs, AsTs, QdTd, QsTs, QcTc, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, AJo }
      MP3 42.31% 42.31% 0.00% { 4h4c }

      Gave him 3 combos of QTs backdoor floats, a ton of AsXs hands, AJ, AKs and we have pretty high equity here.

      Pot odds = 25%

      2) removed AK, added a few more backdoor floats
      Board: Ac4d9sKsJs
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 67.86% 67.86% 0.00% { 99, AJs, AsQs, AsTs, QdTd, QsTs, QcTc, As8s, As7s, 8s7s, As6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, 6s5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, AJo }
      MP3 32.14% 32.14% 0.00% { 4h4c }

      In short I really hate folding sets here. AK would definitely be a fold IMO but not bottom set.