[NL20-NL50] NL50 - Oh no he didn't

    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640

      Villain is supernitty over huge sample:
      13/12/500hands 7% overall 3bet.
      18 wtsd.

      So I sqz small because I want to stack the short fishes but they fold.

      I think BTN's callingrange looks like:
      77-TT, AJs, KQs, QJs, TJs, 9Ts and that's about it. Better hands he'd sqz himself pbb and don't expect him to call AJo here v my pretty big '3bet'.

      So on the turn I think it makes sense for him to shove 77 88 and flushes because I look so strong in his eyes and he wants to stack me before a 4th hearts scares me..

      Vs his valuerange I have only 6% so I'm pretty much dead. Which bluffs could he have? TT 99 with a heart?? But why would he shove that.. Seems like call or fold to me.

      Is this a solid laydown?

      Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2175676
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $61.94
      SB: $46.99
      Hero (BB): $50.00
      UTG: $23.94
      MP: $26.47
      CO: $19.54

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with K :spade: K :diamond:
      1 fold, MP raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $4.25

      Flop: ($14.75) 3 :club: 3 :heart: 7 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7

      Turn: ($28.75) 8 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $13.50, BTN raises to $49.19 all in, Hero folds
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      It seems like you are really optimistic when you bluff but extremely pessimistic when bluff catching :)

      He's a nit right? I think his defending range may be tighter than that and contain fewer speculative hands.

      Your fold here requires two assumptions
      -He never jams mid pocket pairs here
      -He has many flushes

      I think we must definitely discount or even remove 77/88 from his range. People almost always slowplay boats especially when stacks are shallow in relation to the pot.

      Pot odds = ~22-23%

      1) What I think his range really is

      Board: 3c3h7h8h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 50.23% 50.23% 0.00% { JdJh, JhJs, JhJc, TdTh, ThTs, ThTc, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, AhTh }
      MP3 49.77% 49.77% 0.00% { KdKs }

      2) Being more pessimistic

      Board: 3c3h7h8h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 72.93% 72.93% 0.00% { JdJh, JhJs, JhJc, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, JhTh }
      MP3 27.07% 27.07% 0.00% { KdKs }


      Just because he's nitty pre doesn't mean he wouldn't make these type of protection plays and shove here. There are a ton of passive fish around who would flat 3bets with pocket pairs and shove low Flops with no Q/K/A.

      You can never fold here
    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hmm this looks so weird..

      I think JJ+ is definetely a squeeze for him on the BTN.. Maybe even TT+ but let's say he just callt TT.

      So it all comes down on shoving TT or not... And how can I possibly accept that he's shoving a hand as TT. I would think that he's even on the edge of folding it?
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      He is a nit and i think theres a good chance he flats jj here pre.

      Also, theres 99 as well which i excluded cos i didnt want to be so optimistic. I think that he is less likely to have boats than jj for sure.