This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

[NL20-NL50] NL50 - Oh no he didn't

    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640

      Villain is supernitty over huge sample:
      13/12/500hands 7% overall 3bet.
      18 wtsd.

      So I sqz small because I want to stack the short fishes but they fold.

      I think BTN's callingrange looks like:
      77-TT, AJs, KQs, QJs, TJs, 9Ts and that's about it. Better hands he'd sqz himself pbb and don't expect him to call AJo here v my pretty big '3bet'.

      So on the turn I think it makes sense for him to shove 77 88 and flushes because I look so strong in his eyes and he wants to stack me before a 4th hearts scares me..

      Vs his valuerange I have only 6% so I'm pretty much dead. Which bluffs could he have? TT 99 with a heart?? But why would he shove that.. Seems like call or fold to me.

      Is this a solid laydown?

      Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2175676
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $61.94
      SB: $46.99
      Hero (BB): $50.00
      UTG: $23.94
      MP: $26.47
      CO: $19.54

      Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with K :spade: K :diamond:
      1 fold, MP raises to $1.50, CO calls $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $4.25

      Flop: ($14.75) 3 :club: 3 :heart: 7 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7

      Turn: ($28.75) 8 :heart: (2 players)
      Hero bets $13.50, BTN raises to $49.19 all in, Hero folds
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      It seems like you are really optimistic when you bluff but extremely pessimistic when bluff catching :)

      He's a nit right? I think his defending range may be tighter than that and contain fewer speculative hands.

      Your fold here requires two assumptions
      -He never jams mid pocket pairs here
      -He has many flushes

      I think we must definitely discount or even remove 77/88 from his range. People almost always slowplay boats especially when stacks are shallow in relation to the pot.

      Pot odds = ~22-23%

      1) What I think his range really is

      Board: 3c3h7h8h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 50.23% 50.23% 0.00% { JdJh, JhJs, JhJc, TdTh, ThTs, ThTc, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, AhTh }
      MP3 49.77% 49.77% 0.00% { KdKs }

      2) Being more pessimistic

      Board: 3c3h7h8h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 72.93% 72.93% 0.00% { JdJh, JhJs, JhJc, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, KhJh, QhJh, AhTh, KhTh, JhTh }
      MP3 27.07% 27.07% 0.00% { KdKs }


      Just because he's nitty pre doesn't mean he wouldn't make these type of protection plays and shove here. There are a ton of passive fish around who would flat 3bets with pocket pairs and shove low Flops with no Q/K/A.

      You can never fold here
    • Farmarchist
      Joined: 27.12.2010 Posts: 14,640
      Hmm this looks so weird..

      I think JJ+ is definetely a squeeze for him on the BTN.. Maybe even TT+ but let's say he just callt TT.

      So it all comes down on shoving TT or not... And how can I possibly accept that he's shoving a hand as TT. I would think that he's even on the edge of folding it?
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      He is a nit and i think theres a good chance he flats jj here pre.

      Also, theres 99 as well which i excluded cos i didnt want to be so optimistic. I think that he is less likely to have boats than jj for sure.