[NL20-NL50] J10s

    • kirezafirov
      Joined: 05.04.2010 Posts: 74
      Full Tilt - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (BB): 97.6 BB
      UTG: 86.56 BB (VPIP: 26.77, PFR: 20.87, 3Bet Preflop: 17.50, Hands: 271)
      MP: 167.6 BB (VPIP: 22.60, PFR: 16.41, 3Bet Preflop: 2.91, Hands: 334)
      CO: 108.24 BB (VPIP: 32.65, PFR: 24.49, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 49)
      BTN: 53 BB (VPIP: 53.57, PFR: 3.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
      SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has J:heart: T:heart:

      UTG calls 1 BB, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB, UTG calls 2 BB

      Flop: (9.4 BB, 3 players) 2:heart: 8:club: K:heart:
      Hero checks, UTG bets 5.2 BB, fold, Hero calls 5.2 BB

      Turn: (19.8 BB, 2 players) Q:spade:
      Hero checks, UTG bets 10 BB, Hero raises to 32 BB, UTG raises to 68 BB, Hero raises to 89.4 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 10.36 BB and is all-in

      River: (176.52 BB, 2 players) 5:club:

      Hero shows J:heart: T:heart: (High Card, King) (Pre 54%, Flop 27%, Turn 30%)
      UTG shows 2:spade: 2:club: (Three of a Kind, Twos) (Pre 46%, Flop 73%, Turn 70%)
      UTG wins 167.72 BB

      Villian stats 27/21/18/64
  • 3 replies
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Kirezafirov,

      Preflop: unless MP is really loose, which he doesn't look to be, we should 3-bet rather than call this OOP.

      Postflop: As played what do you think a regish UTG limp/calls with that plays like this? Why are we raising the turn? Are we expecting him to fold better or call worse?
    • kirezafirov
      Joined: 05.04.2010 Posts: 74
      I have 15 outs on the turn and can profitably go all in.
    • Tomaloc
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 7,014
      no you can't.
      you're losing about $4-$5 if he always has a strong hand on the turn.

      might be about ok if he actually bet/folds sometimes, which might or might not be a reasonable assumption, his sizing isn't really super strong.
      clearly not super $$$$$$$ printing spot though

      [edit: that said, best play is clearly to flat turn. that'll be undoubtedly +EV just given his betsizing, you are mathematically very well priced in.]