HU Hyper theory question

    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players - View hand 2175799
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN/SB: t633 21.10 BBs
      Hero (BB): t367 12.23 BBs

      Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with 8 :diamond: T :heart:
      BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero calls t30

      Flop: (t120) A :club: J :diamond: T :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN/SB bets t30, Hero calls t30

      Turn: (t180) K :spade: (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN/SB checks

      Hi guys, I have a few theoretical questions and the hand posted is just to illustrate my point. I am not posting this hand for analysis, however, I want to improve my 11-14bb OOP play.

      Let's say,in the current hand villain is raising top 54-55% of hands including all his monsters, pairs, middling hands and some crappy low suited connectors or rag-high cards that he r/f and call with about top 35%-meaning any pair, ace, K6s+,K7o, all broadway etc.

      Checking ICMizer, T8o has an expectetation of minus 15 chips on a shove. If I fold though, I lose 30(a BB). Does that mean that shoving is still better than folding despite it being a 1/2bb loosing play OR...does it leave the option of calling and try making a minus ev push pre a profitable call postflop.
      Given all that:
      1-would u call all the hands preflop that down to minus 29 chips on shoving expecation and play fit or fold on flop(maybe bluffing midding flops that hit our perceived range)?
      2-if so, do we still stack off with any pair on any board?
      3-do we c/s draws on Axx board when both us and villain know that we are very unlikely to have Ax wihin our range

      I know it's way too many things to consider, but for now let's say that villain is a mediocre fish with a high cbet %..

      My general approach will be to ship everything that I think is + EV vs a wide opener and flat middling hands that have negative expectation vs a tighter opener.
      I want to know what's the cut off line and how I can do these calculations by myself. I know involving postflop makes it very tricky, but I have to start from some point.

      Thanks and hopefully I will get some solid advices to help my approach for these very shallow effective stack sizes situations.
  • 6 replies
    • Qicmizer
      Qicmizer
      Gold
      Joined: 17.09.2011 Posts: 669
      Hey kurrkabin.

      I think you are making a mistake interpreting results.

      I have tried to create a situation you describe , that is 54% raise range and 35% call reshove range and got that T8o is -11 chips

      It can be found here: www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#jsPt
      (switch to chipEv once you open).

      Mistake is here

      T8o has an expectetation of minus 15 chips on a shove. If I fold though, I lose 30(a BB).


      Whats important is that shove is 15 chips worse than fold, and fold already includes losing 30 . So when you shove and its 15 chips worse, you lose 45 chips with a shove, (41 in my example hand).

      Look directly at two values, EvFold and EvCheck: EvFold is 337 (367-30) and EvPush is 326 , (367-41).

      It is pretty important to understand what exactly that -11 chips Shove means, and I hope this helps.
    • Qubie
      Qubie
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2008 Posts: 2,495
      Originally posted by Qicmizer

      T8o has an expectetation of minus 15 chips on a shove. If I fold though, I lose 30(a BB).


      Whats important is that shove is 15 chips worse than fold, and fold already includes losing 30 . So when you shove and its 15 chips worse, you lose 45 chips with a shove, (41 in my example hand).

      Look directly at two values, EvFold and EvCheck: EvFold is 337 (367-30) and EvPush is 326 , (367-41).

      It is pretty important to understand what exactly that -11 chips Shove means, and I hope this helps.
      This, most software will display this in relation to a fold. so it's indeed 15 or 11 chips worse then a fold.

      For the rest of your questions I don't have the time now(off to work), but I will think about them
    • kurrkabin
      kurrkabin
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.10.2010 Posts: 5,976
      Thanks for the quick respond both of you and hopefully, we will be able to discuss the preflop flat scenarios as well :)
    • Qubie
      Qubie
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.01.2008 Posts: 2,495
      there is btw a piece of software where you could explore this. Hint: it's made by same company which made flopzilla. It's not for the feint of heart though.
    • daun666
      daun666
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 540
      Originally posted by kurrkabin
      Checking ICMizer, T8o has an expectetation of minus 15 chips on a shove. If I fold though, I lose 30(a BB). Does that mean that shoving is still better than folding despite it being a 1/2bb loosing play OR...does it leave the option of calling and try making a minus ev push pre a profitable call postflop.
      Jamming is better but you can also flat this hand.


      Given all that:
      1-would u call all the hands preflop that down to minus 29 chips on shoving expecation and play fit or fold on flop(maybe bluffing midding flops that hit our perceived range)?
      2-if so, do we still stack off with any pair on any board?
      3-do we c/s draws on Axx board when both us and villain know that we are very unlikely to have Ax wihin our range
      I would jam all hands we can be break even or slightly losing from start of the hand but where is boarder to jam/flat hard to say because its very hard to estimate ev of flatting(usually its between -1bb and 0), you can only look in your db at winrate when flatting but its very hard to get sample. In this example Id jam pre.

      What we do post is depending on flops, we gii pairs on allmost all flops, and if he cbets alot we should check jam also flops that misses his range.

      I know it's way too many things to consider, but for now let's say that villain is a mediocre fish with a high cbet %..

      My general approach will be to ship everything that I think is + EV vs a wide opener and flat middling hands that have negative expectation vs a tighter opener.

      I want to know what's the cut off line and how I can do these calculations by myself. I know involving postflop makes it very tricky, but I have to start from some point.
      As I said cut off line is very hard to find. Qubie suggests card runners ev but still its not possible to estimate ev of flatting and playing post unless you know your villain very very very good - you have very good picture of his ranges and frequencies + there is many different flop textures.

      In general you should flat alot at this depth and 3b jam only for value, because people are not minraising wide at this depth, in your example 55% is very rare case.
    • Wriggers
      Wriggers
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.07.2009 Posts: 3,250
      As daun said, you have to pretty much guess your expectation from flatting by correctly judging how much of an edge you have versus the villain postflop.

      Anything that shoves better than -100bb/100 should be a shove readless, however bear in mind that once you start shoving a ton more villain will adjust no matter how fishy he is and call lighter, which in a lot of cases makes our shoving expectation go down (eg calling off lighter with Qx and Jx), so we have to be aware that our expectation from shoving is in constant flux.