[NL20-NL50] KT gut shot ,

    • daisuke3823
      daisuke3823
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

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      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (3 handed)

      Known players:
      BB (Hero):
      $25.00
      BU:
      $13.93
      SB:
      $68.89


      Preflop: Hero is BB with K, T.
      BU folds, SB raises to $0.60, Hero raises to $2.00, SB calls $1.40.

      Flop: ($4) Q, 4, A (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2.29, SB calls $2.29.

      Turn: ($8.58) 2 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $5.20, SB calls $5.20.

      River: ($18.98) 9 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $15.51, SB folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $18.98.

      145  hands vpip29 pfr19 wtsd22 fold to flop CB 40  turn 0  river 100     3BET 1.9   flop AGG41  turn 24  rivver 20              

      I triple barrel, I think he has an ace, and felt he wouldnt fold, was it overplayed?
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Preflop: Don't 3bet here, just call. I don't think we are a favourite vs any calling range so we shouldn't 3bet for thin value and I don't think we are really 3betting as a bluff too.

      Turn: What's his fold to 3b %, and his SB opening range? We need these stats to better assess his range here. I'm going to guess that he is opening around 40% of hands and is calling 3bets with the stronger off suit broadways, and all suited broadways and a few AXs. I think it's probably ok to fire Turn to fold out his hands like KJ/JTs/KTs and maybe we get to fold out some KQ QJs QTs combos too.

      River: I don't think this guy is aggro enough to 4bet AQ preflop. good thing is that he seems to be weak.

      -If opponent is weak, and will not herocall river (high fold to River cbet), then we should 3barrel
      -If opponent is loose and loves bluff catching (high VPIP, low fold to 3b, low fold to River cbet, high WTSD), then we should give up.
    • daisuke3823
      daisuke3823
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      fold to 3 bet 60 , call 40, open from SB 60.
      he seems to be normal so I tried to triple barrel
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I think this guy's range here on the River is ATs/AJ/AQ. I'm not sure how often he defends AXs pre, so let's add A9s A8s A7s.

      Let's assume he folds half the time with AJ, and folds AT and worse, while calling with AQ.

      hands which fold
      AXs (9 combos)
      ATs (2 combos)
      AJ (6 out of 12)
      17 combos

      Hands which call
      AQ (9 combos)
      AJ (6 out of 12 combos)
      15 combos

      If my assessment of the situation is correct, then a 3barrel would be fine, cos we are risking 15.1 to win a pot of 34.50 = 43.7% required fold equity. Here we are folding out 17/32 = 53% fold equity.