[NL20-NL50] [SH]NL50 ATs

    • dannywratten
      Joined: 11.05.2010 Posts: 1,462
      Villain unknown over small sample, but had him marked as a fish. (Must have seen him open limp on another zoom table or smth).

      didn't really like flatting IP because SB was very aggro, & also didn't mind the 3bet since I marked him fishy so I'm assuming he's not super positionally aware & will call worse vs the 3b.

      Can I really fold to the min 4b IP? Hate the spot, esp vs unknown, but I was getting 4.25:1 so I figured if he has a 4b bluffing range I can jam flops with equity.
      Is this just too ambitious vs unknowns?

      OTF I was planning to just shove over his cbet, but I'm only getting it in vs like QQ+ which I have 43% against, so it's not soooo bad I guess.

      On the other hand, I can call flop & shove blank turns if he is bluffing & gives up. If he barrels I would just fold.

      I don't expect him to just barrel off with air in a 4b pot so I don't think I have any fold equity vs a turn bet with a low SPR.
      I also expect his turn betting range to be quite strong.

      Hope that made some sense.

      Hero (BTN): $50 (100 bb)
      SB: $23.75 (47.5 bb)
      BB: $50 (100 bb)
      UTG: $50 (100 bb)
      MP: $56.07 (112.1 bb)
      CO: $129.66 (259.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with A T
      UTG folds, MP raises to $1.50, CO folds, Hero raises to $4.50, 2 folds, MP raises to $7.50, Hero calls $3

      Flop: ($15.75) 5 9 3 (2 players)
      MP bets $7.50, Hero calls $7.50

      Turn: ($30.75) 7 (2 players)
      MP bets $10, Hero calls $10

      River: ($50.75) T (2 players)
      MP bets $10, Hero raises to $25 and is all-in, MP calls $15

      $100.75 pot ($2.50 rake)
      Final Board: 5 9 3 7 T
      Hero showed A T and won $98.25 ($48.25 net)
      MP showed K K and lost (-$50 net)
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      You should just raise the Flop and play for stacks. While we are a slight underdog if we get called, the main profit of the play comes from the fold equity we get when villain folds AK or some other bluffs.

    • dannywratten
      Joined: 11.05.2010 Posts: 1,462
      Thank you :)
      So you're ok with preflop? Not really used to calling 4bets, but seemed ok with position/odds
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Yeah, preflop is a snap call unless he has QQ+. Even vs QQ+ we probably have the right odds to call, though it would be pretty tough to play. I'm sure this guy's range is wider than QQ+/AK.

      He's giving you 20% pot odds.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 70.69% 69.56% 1.13% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
      MP3 29.31% 28.18% 1.13% { ATs }

      So even vs such a tight range we have to call.