[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - QQ: overpair vs overshove flop paired

    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      BU: 61/1
      0.6 af
      55% fold vs cbet flop
      30 % wwsf
      264 hands

      SB: 85/21

      Hero (BB): $59.04 (118.1 bb)
      MP: $71 (142 bb)
      CO: $90.66 (181.3 bb)
      BTN: $18.37 (36.7 bb)
      SB: $58.70 (117.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with Q Q
      2 folds, BTN calls $0.50, SB completes, Hero raises to $2.75, BTN calls $2.25, SB calls $2.25

      Flop: ($8.25) 6 6 3 (3 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $5.75, BTN folds, SB raises to $55.95 and is all-in, Hero?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      This is a pretty shitty spot to be in. And it depends on two things.

      -How often does villain ship a draw here?
      -How often does villain ship a worse overpair here?

      The sucky thing about this spot is that villain is 85/21. He's gonna have a ton of 6X in his range which makes this spot really nasty.

      My guess is that his range is something like that.

      Pot odds = 50 / 120 = 41.6%

      Board: 6c6h3c
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 43.13% 43.13% 0.00% { QhQc }
      MP3 56.87% 56.87% 0.00% { JJ-88, A6s, K6s, Q6s, J6s, T6s, 96s, 86s, 76s, 62s+, AcKc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Jc9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac2c, A6o, K6o, Q6o, J6o }

      So I think you can see that the required pot odds is pretty close to the equity. I would call KK and AA here, QQ is close and I don't mind either decision. Having Q of clubs is bad for you because you block some Q high flush draws. Maybe you can call QQ with no clubs and fold QQ with clubs.

      Do you have AF? The sample won't be huge, but if we see something like 0.5, I'm folding here, if we see 2.5-3, I would probably call.
    • Lunitis
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,136
      Ups, i posted Bu stats but we need SB stats.
      1.3 af
      39% wwsf
      37% fold vs cbet