[NL2-NL10] NL2 QQ vs 3bet OoP

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: $1.42 - 71 bb
      UTG3: $2.00 - 100 bb
      MP1: $2.00 - 100 bb
      MP2: $3.03 - 152 bb
      MP3: $2.01 - 101 bb
      CO: $2.99 - 150 bb
      BU: $5.38 - 269 bb
      SB: $0.75 - 38 bb
      BB: $2.00 - 100 bb

      0.01/0.02 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.411.7

      Preflop: Hero is UTG3 with Q:spade: , Q:diamond:
      SB posts small blind ($0.01), BB posts big blind ($0.02), UTG2 folds, Hero raises for $0.08, 3 folds, CO 3-bets $0.26, 3 folds, Hero calls

      Flop: ($0.55 - 27.50 bb) T:club: , 4:heart: , 3:club: (2 Players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $0.38, Hero calls

      Turn: ($1.31 - 65.50 bb) 7:spade: (2 Players)
      Hero checks, CO checks

      River: ($1.31 - 65.50 bb) T:spade: (2 Players)
      Hero checks, CO bets $2.35, Hero folds, CO gets uncalled back ($2.35)

      -----

      This is a strange line for a CO to take. However, I expect his check on the turn to be to induce the bluff?

      I need at least 34.96% of equity to call profitably and if I put villain on this range (few bluffs in) I have enough.

      Board: Tc4h3c7sTs
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 59.52% 57.14% 2.38% { QQ+, A5s-A4s, AcKc }
      MP3 40.48% 38.10% 2.38% { QdQs }

      But if there are only 4 combos of missed AKs I can't call.

      Board: Tc4h3c7sTs
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 73.53% 70.59% 2.94% { QQ+, AKs }
      MP3 26.47% 23.53% 2.94% { QdQs }

      Is my reasoning correct?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      QQ is way too strong to fold here. This is pretty much the top of your range, and you showed weakness by checking the Turn AND River. He could just overbet bluff and try to push you off your smaller pocket pairs.

      Given the action and how under-represented your hand is, you have to call. It would be pretty foolish for him to play AA/KK like that, check the Turn AND overbet the River. Why would anyone take such a line for value? I think it looks way bluffier.

      So I'll call because
      -Our hand is under-represented
      -Our hand is at the top of our range
      -His line is inconsistent with a value hand

      I'm really not giving him too much credit for TX here, which is the main thing he's repping. Unless you think he's really aggro preflop.