[NL20-NL50] A4s, fd vs regular

    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      MP is a fish 33/0, almost unknown.
      BB is a reg, but it is his first hand at the table, so Holdem Manager didn't show his stats. The reg had call open 14, and raise cbet 14 of 14 samples, but I didn't know it.
      He has wwsf 30 (of 43 samples) which means he is probably not so agressive as it seems.

      I think his spectrum on the flop is very strong, since there is a fish. Do you think we have fold equity on the turn against his 3/4 potsize bet? What if he bets a half pot, can we push then?
      I have gatshot, sometimes ace is my out when reg will not shove the river. Do we have profitable call on the turn?

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
      SB ($18)
      BB ($25)
      UTG ($10.57)
      UTG+1 ($14.12)
      Hero ($25)
      BTN ($10.25)

      Dealt to Hero 4:diamond: A:diamond:

      fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, fold, fold, BB calls $0.75, fold

      FLOP ($2.35) T:club: Q:diamond: 3:diamond:

      BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, BB raises to $3.90, Hero calls $2.40

      TURN ($10.15) T:club: Q:diamond: 3:diamond: 2:club:

      BB bets $7.30, Hero calls $7.30

      RIVER ($24.75) T:club: Q:diamond: 3:diamond: 2:club: 8:spade:

      BB bets $12.80 (AI), Hero folds
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      Hi.

      Preflop: Villain's range is hard to define here without stats. On one hand vs a 4bb raise, he should be calling tighter. On the other hand when there's a fish in the pot, he should widen his range more to include some speculative hands.

      Flop and Turn: Looks pretty standard. We have some implied odds, and we are a favourite vs smaller flush draws and stuff like KJ.

      River: Easy fold. If he checks I would check back cos we have showdown value vs busted draws.

      Thanks.
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      Oh, thanks.
      And what if we had AQ here, I think I would play hand the same way. What do you think about river with tptk, can we call here, especially vs unknown reg?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,697
      I'll call there when all the draws missed. Only J9s got there, and if he is remotely aggressive he's going to be bluffing there enough of the time to justify a call.