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[NL2-NL10] 56s turn fold ?

    • staselu
      staselu
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2008 Posts: 532
      Pacific $6.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BB): $7.07 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 5, AF: 3,7, Hands: 5111
      UTG: $5.10 - VPIP: 50, PFR: 13, 3B: 0, AF: 3,0, Hands: 8
      CO: $7.74 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 10, 3B: 0, AF: 1,7, Hands: 105
      BTN: $2.00 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 18, 3B: 9, AF: 2,2, Hands: 44
      SB: $5.80 - VPIP: 33, PFR: 1, 3B: 0, AF: 0,9, Hands: 103

      Pre Flop: ($0.09) Hero is BB with 6:heart: 5:heart:
      UTG raises to $0.12, CO calls $0.12, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.06

      Flop: ($0.39) 4:heart: Q:spade: T:heart: (3 players)
      Hero bets $0.29, UTG calls $0.29, CO calls $0.29

      Turn: ($1.26) 9:heart: (3 players)
      Hero bets $1.14, UTG raises to $4.69, CO folds, Hero folds

      flop: I donk, because the bord is wet and we are 3 way, that means that the probability that villain will cbet is smaller, and we do have only 6 high so we have some fold equity here as well

      turn: I need 40% equity to call


      Board: 4:heart: Q:spade: T:heart:  9:heart:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    76.28%  76.28%   0.00% { 6h5h }
      MP3    23.72%  23.72%   0.00% { 99, AhKh, AhQh, KhQh, AhJh, AhTh, KhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Ah8h, KJo, J8o }


      based on my calculations there is a call

      to find out the equity I need I use this formula:

      the pot is 7.09 I need to call 3.55

      3.55/7.09+3.55 = 0.33364 that is 33%, holdem manager 2 shows that I need 1.51:1 (40%)
      what I missed in my calculations ?
  • 1 reply
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      Just fold preflop. No need to get into marginal spots with his hand OOP.

      On the flop I prefer check/calling. I doubt we have much fold equity on this board against two players and with 6 high we don't really want to build up the pot.

      As played, I'd bet $1 on the turn. When UTG shoves I'd rather fold here. Don't really see him shoving worse hands here.

      Also, your calculations look good to me. Don't know why HEM shows 40%.

      Best,
      Plamen