[NL20-NL50] AQs

    • cekpirus88
      Joined: 16.06.2011 Posts: 441
      hey the statistics of the player that folded are very loose 44 VPIP and anyway AQs is a perfect hand to isolate.
      Post flop I decided to bet big because many draws can call, and looking the statistic of this opponent (60 hands) it seems that he is check raising too much... 50%.....but in this spot i think that I am behind...

      Party Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 2179068
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $7.65
      UTG+1: $9.62
      UTG+2: $30.76
      MP1: $10.10
      MP2: $9.65
      CO: $26.74
      Cekpirus88 (BTN): $28.15
      SB: $8.06
      BB: $23.75

      Pre Flop: ($0.35) Cekpirus88 is BTN with Q :spade: A :spade:
      2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, Cekpirus88 raises to $1.50, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls $1.25, MP1 calls $1.25

      Flop: ($4.85) T :heart: A :club: K :spade: (3 players)
      UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Cekpirus88 bets $3.45, UTG+2 raises to $11.22, MP1 folds, Cekpirus88 folds

      Final Pot: $11.75
      UTG+2 wins $11.17
      (Rake: $0.58)
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      I would bet fold here by default. Dont think your sample size on postflop stats are large enough for us to put significant trust in them. And against a range of many twopairs sets straights we are crushed.

      Of cos if he has some pair plus draw or some top pair no kicker we will be hating ourselves for folding but still most players dont do that. His vpip pfr also tells me that he is tight passive and this is the stat that is the mosy reliable over smaller samples.