[NL2-NL10] NL2 FR Cbet or not to cbet?

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      UTG2: $1.03 - 52 bb
      UTG3: $2.08 - 104 bb
      MP1: $0.80 - 40 bb
      MP2: $1.47 - 74 bb
      MP3: $2.17 - 109 bb
      CO: $1.59 - 80 bb
      BU: $0.94 - 47 bb
      SB: $5.04 - 252 bb
      BB: $3.09 - 155 bb

      0.01/0.02 No Limit Hold'em (9 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.415.2

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with T:heart: , 9:heart:
      SB posts small blind ($0.01), BB posts big blind ($0.02), 4 folds, Hero raises for $0.08, CO folds, BU calls, 2 folds

      Flop: ($0.19 - 9.50 bb) A:heart: , A:club: , 3:diamond: (2 Players)
      Hero bets $0.12, BU calls

      Turn: ($0.43 - 21.50 bb) 3:spade: (2 Players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $0.12, Hero folds, BU gets uncalled back ($0.12)

      -----

      Cbet or not to cbet? This paired flop is not like other paired flops as it's less likely that I can credibly rep an A.

      Better hands that could fold:
      KQ-KT
      Hands that beat me:
      Ax, 3x, pockets pairs.

      It's probably better not to cbet this flop, am I right?
      How to play this hand on the flop?
  • 4 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Dawidas,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: I think that with a backdoor flush and this dry flop we should cbet the flop.

      Usually broadways fold and we can bet other turns to get pairs to fold.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      So for my cbet to be profitable my plan should also be to bet 9-K and :heart: turns and then c/f river? Or should I also bluff bet river? If yes, what kind of river would be safe to continue with 3rd barrel?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by Dawidas888
      So for my cbet to be profitable my plan should also be to bet 9-K and :heart: turns and then c/f river? Or should I also bluff bet river? If yes, what kind of river would be safe to continue with 3rd barrel?
      Not necessarly for it to be profitable.

      You risk 0.12/0.31 which means your bet has to work 39% of the time without considering the future streets.

      I think we have that much FE to begin with.

      However, we can barrel other turns to increase the amount of times we win the hand.

      If, for example, the turn is a Kh and we bet and get called I would not bluff the river without more information. I would expect most floats/ pairs to fold turn so his range is shewed towards Ax.
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      BU's range:
      BW, 22-QQ, A2s+, ATo+

      Hands I fold out with cbet:
      KT+, QT+, JT (44+28+12=84 combos)

      Hands that call:
      22-QQ, A2s+, ATo+ (10x6+1x3+11x2+1+2x2+3x8=104 combos)

      Fold Equity = 84/188*100 = 44.68%

      You are right, cbet is actually profitable in itself (assuming there are no floats) :)

      Thanks for the explanation regarding the barreling on future streets!