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[NL2-NL10] NL2 FR Tough fold

    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      Known Players:
      MP1: $5.15 - 258 bb
      MP2: $0.77 - 39 bb
      MP3: $2.43 - 122 bb
      CO: $1.99 - 100 bb
      BU: $5.90 - 295 bb
      SB: $0.98 - 49 bb
      BB: $4.67 - 234 bb

      0.01/0.02 No Limit Hold'em (7 Handed)
      Hand recorder for this hand: PokerStrategy.com SideKick 1.1.415.2

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A:club: , J:club:
      SB posts small blind ($0.01), BB posts big blind ($0.02), 2 folds, Hero raises for $0.08, 3 folds, BB calls

      Flop: ($0.17 - 8.50 bb) 7:diamond: , 5:heart: , 4:club: (2 Players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      Turn: ($0.17 - 8.50 bb) 9:spade: (2 Players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($0.17 - 8.50 bb) A:diamond: (2 Players)
      BB bets $0.16, Hero folds, BB gets uncalled back ($0.16)

      -----

      On the river opponent pot bets which in NL2 is usually a strong hand. Also, from my checkin he could understand that I have Ax hand. So his big bet is really strong. Furthermore, I don't think that someone in NL2 would wake up on A river to bluff me out here. That's the reasons why I folded.

      Hands I beat that would bet:
      AT (6 combos; A2, A3, A6, A8 unlikely in his preflop range)
      Hands I lose to:
      77, 55, 44, 99, AK, AQ (28 combos; A9, A7, A5, A4 unlikely in his preflop range)

      I need 33.33% of equity to break-even. And I have only 17.65% so I think my fold is correct.

      Is my reasoning correct?
  • 2 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      You are giving him too narrow a range. I think sometimes he could have a complete bluff trying to take a shot at the pot since you checked twice and A landed on the river. Also he could bet like that with worse A.

      With his weaker range than you gave him I think we got the odds to call and we only need to be right about 30% of the time
    • Dawidas888
      Dawidas888
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.06.2009 Posts: 826
      So if he has a bluff 25% of the times and giving him the wider range of Ax he overplays: AT, A2, A3, A6, A8 (30 combos) then we should have wider value range 77, 55, 44, 99, AK, AQ, A9, A7, A5, A4 (52 combos). My equity would be
      25% + (30/82*100) = 61.59%

      In conclusion, if his range is wider and he bluffs at least 1 time out of 4, I have more than enough equity to call. Furthermore, I wouldn't even need him to bluff 25% of the times if he has wider range as I am ahead 36.59% of the times with wider ranges included.

      So all in all, I should call in this spot. Thanks!