[NL20-NL50] 2 pair fold, useful stats?

    • daisuke3823
      daisuke3823
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2008 Posts: 8,321
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      ハンドをプレーする

      $0.1/$0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)

      Known players:
      MP3 (Hero):
      $25.00
      CO:
      $25.00
      BU:
      $22.32
      SB:
      $25.45
      BB:
      $21.19
      MP2:
      $17.43


      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K, J.
      MP2 folds, Hero raises to $0.60, 2 folds, SB calls $0.50, BB folds.

      Flop: ($1.45) J, K, 3 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.83, SB calls $0.83.

      Turn: ($3.11) 5 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2.38, SB raises to $7.80, Hero folds, SB gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $5.49.

      243 hands   vpip32 pfr22 wtsd32 flop AGG 25 turn 22  river 27  fold to flop CB 33 turn 33  

      I folded on the turn, is there any stats that can tell if he had made hand or bluff here? will you tell me?
  • 1 reply
    • w34z3l
      w34z3l
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 03.08.2009 Posts: 13,297
      Hey Daisuke3823,

      I think you made a good turn fold here.

      Generally speaking there is no single stat that can tell you if villain is check-raising the turn light. Turn check-raise stat is heavily dependent on other factors.

      For example which range does villain get to the turn with in the first place? Fold to flop cbet might tell you that.

      Then we'd need to know which range villain even has on the flop which we can establish by his cold-call from SB.

      You likely don't have enough of a sample to draw any solid conclusions about his turn check-raising range. Your best hope is to make estimates based on his overall aggression and play in other-spots (or history where he'd taken the same line before). If in doubt, better to assume he is never bluffing. Most players aren't.