[NL2-NL10] NL16SH QJo OESD SB Cbet facing raise

    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Poker Stars $16.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      UTG: $18.42
      MP: $29.93
      CO: $50.95
      BTN: $16.00
      Hero (SB): $24.79
      BB: $16.24

      Pre Flop: ($0.24) Hero is SB with J :diamond: Q :heart:
      4 folds, Hero raises to $0.48, BB calls $0.32

      Flop: ($0.96) T :club: K :spade: 6 :diamond: (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.64, BB raises to $2, Hero raises to $5.60, BB raises to $9.20, Hero raises to $24.31, BB calls $6.56 all in

      Turn: ($32.48) 8 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: ($32.48) 5 :club: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      Villain is a 23/19 player on 575 hands. He has 5.5 overall 3bet (2/8 BB vs SB and 12%BBvsST) He then has 62% FvsCbet but 40% (out of 8) in position and aggression in the mid 40's on each street.

      My first thoughts are what is his range and what is he representing?

      I somehow don't see sets playing this fast on this board, and I'm not sure I see two-pair doing that either and what two-pairs are there anyway? KT T6 and K6..... Maybe he can make this raise with some sort of gutter + Ahi but that doesn't make sense because he didn't 3bet pre.

      Perhaps this is a reg taking advantage of the fact he has such a narrow value range and can thus get me to play back.....

      I decide that I should 3bet and then jam if he re-raises since my own 3bet can look rather bluffy in a spot where value hands would probably have a great spot to C/C down and let aggressive opponents spew off.

      My thoughts are all over the place it seems, but I can see that at worst (imo) he has KT and I still have 30% equity vs that hand :f_p:
  • 1 reply
    • BogdanPS
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DaPhunk,

      So after we get 4-bet do you expect to have any fold equity whatsoever?

      We are now investing 10.64 to win 32.48 so we need roughly 33% pot odds.

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 28.41% 28.41% 0.00% QhJd
      MP3 71.59% 71.59% 0.00% TT, 66, AKs, KTs, AKo, KTo

      Not, I put all AK combos but that's not realistic.

      However, even if you narrow that down to fewer AK combos you still have about the same equity

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 28.38% 28.38% 0.00% QhJd
      MP3 71.62% 71.62% 0.00% TT, 66, KTs, KTo, AdKh, AdKc, AhKd, AhKc

      All in all I think 3-betting the flop and then shoving is quite the spew on this board versus such a villain.