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[NL2-NL10] Ak

    • metza
      Joined: 28.01.2012 Posts: 2,220
      PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      Hero (SB): $15.65
      BB: $10.00
      UTG: $10.82
      CO: $13.22
      BTN: $7.24

      Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has A:spade: K:heart:

      fold, CO raises to $0.20, fold, Hero raises to $0.60, fold, CO calls $0.40

      Flop: ($1.30, 2 players) 5:spade: 9:club: A:club:
      Hero bets $0.90, CO calls $0.90

      Turn: ($3.10, 2 players) Q:club:
      Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50

      River: ($6.10, 2 players) 2:heart:
      Hero checks, CO checks

      Hero shows A:spade: K:heart: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 69%, Flop 87%, Turn 93%)
      CO mucks T:diamond: A:diamond: (One Pair, Aces) (Pre 31%, Flop 13%, Turn 7%)
      Hero wins $5.83

      Opponent is 17/14 preflop, 33% LP raise. 29 hands. AFq 80 quite aggro postflop.

      I think I should bet bigger on turn maybe 2.2. Possibly 3bet to 80c pre is better as well but I have been 3betting 11% or so, so 4xing is a bit too costly risk:reward for this range imo.

      Not sure if bet/fold, check/call is better on river. He is fairly aggressive so I did expect him to bet hands like AT and busted clubs but sample is small so possibly very inaccurate.
  • 4 replies
    • yougotfelted51
      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 1,276
      i would be inclined to make it bigger pre.

      as played i would bet turn bigger as you stated.
      then just check/call river vs particular opponent for a variety or reasons (not just because you showed the results)

      since villain has shown aggressive tendencies (small sample though) i would expect almost all 2 pair combos/sets to raise your flop cbet. some fds would possibly be raised as well.

      on turn, i believe AQ would raise sometimes, and flushes would almost always raise since you are deep (to get stacks in by river)

      therefore, by river i would think the vast majority of villain's range is Ax+c, but not likely the Kc very often (possibly 4b pre vs you and your image) and a check/call would be a profitable option
    • cutegoldfish
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      i dont expect him to bluffbet after your bet into him on the flop and turn so i prefer betting river myself for value.

      ill bet bigger on the turn like 2 and then bet again on river and fold to a shove.

      if he has the flush he will let us know by raisng the turn or river and i think thats a small possiblity.

    • yougotfelted51
      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 1,276
      why do we not expect villain to bluff here?
      - due to hero's small sizing on turn and subsequent check on the river, i would think that such a line might be somewhat enticing for villain to bluff
      - also, villain could have lots of hands that picked up equity on the turn but cant win often at showdown that need to bet

      what worse hands will this particular villain call a 3rd barrel with?
      -with not much history (29 hands) and seemingly alright stats, i would think the vast majority of this type of villain would fold AJ/AT to a third barrel and check it back vs our check.
    • cutegoldfish
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      How often do you see a seemingly nitty guy bluff when checked to after calling on flop and turn? If you check immediately on the flop he could bluff but after calling 2 streets he would think you are strong and may not fold.

      And villain could have picked up equity on turn and may not win on river but that does not mean he would think of betting. Perhaps another wider and more aggressive opponent could think like that but I think someone with nitty stats would probably check back everything worse than 2p.

      And I don't expect him to be folding an A here. And possibly he could even call a Q. They make the mistake of calling too wide more often than bluffing too much,