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[NL2-NL10] nl10sh JJ IP against a reraise on river

    • EnterG
      Joined: 26.01.2010 Posts: 632
      Boss, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $20.58 (205.8 bb)
      SB: $28.98 (289.8 bb)
      BB: $11.04 (110.4 bb)
      UTG: $11.86 (118.6 bb)
      MP: $2.40 (24 bb)
      Hero (CO): $10 (100 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
      UTG calls $0.10, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 3 folds, UTG calls $0.35

      Flop: ($1.05) Q Q 9 (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60

      Turn: ($2.25) T (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $1.20, UTG calls $1.20

      River: ($4.65) 4 (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.40, UTG raises to $7.12, Hero calls $4.72

      $18.89 pot ($0.94 rake)
      Final Board: Q Q 9 T 4
      UTG showed Q 4 and won $17.95 ($8.58 net)
      Hero showed J J and lost (-$9.37 net)

      Opponent is fish-passive vpip 45 / pfr 20 / 40 fold to 3bet pre / af 1.4 / fold to cbet flop 59 / fold to cbet turn 0 / wts 38 / w%sd 44 / 210 hands .
      I thought this reraise on river would be a bluff.I guess this opponent with these stats would donk the river for value with a hand like trips or better.I was near to fold with this AF.And since i bet quite small on flop + turn i think i looked weak and maybe opponent was trying to bluff me with worse.
      That 's why i called the bet there.Is the river reraise always a monster ?

      Thanks !
  • 2 replies
    • yougotfelted51
      Joined: 04.02.2010 Posts: 1,276
      river xr line is gonna be nut hands the vast majority of times at these limits.

      this villain in particular will likely only have fh's here. as you stated his AF is 1.4 over 210, which leads me to believe this is never a bluff. i still would probably bet river, although to a smaller amount like 1.35 to induce calls from Tx/some 9x hands. and since villain is so passive we know that if he raises this tiny bet he has it
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Flop: I think you could opt for check or bet. You should plan ahead for the hand though, if there's a blank runout, how many bets can you put in for value? My guess is that we can only bet 2 streets.

      Next question is which are the best streets to put our money into the pot? I think Flop and Turn is fine, or you can pick Turn and River.

      River: Stick with the plan and check back. I don't like betting here, we can no longer bet for value vs draws, and he will have way more combos of QX/J8s/KJ/99/TT as compared to 9X/TX.

      And when you get check/shoved on, it's a snap fold, we are toast here like 90%+ of the time.