[NL20-NL50] NL 20 river shove

    • ezeras
      ezeras
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.02.2012 Posts: 181
      IPoker Network $20.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2182455
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BB: $19.70 - VPIP: 40, PFR: 20, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 5
      UTG: $20.10 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 21, 3B: 10, AF: 3.9, Hands: 606
      MP: $25.80 - VPIP: 28, PFR: 22, 3B: 6, AF: 0.0, Hands: 32
      CO: $20.40 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 23, 3B: 11, AF: 2.7, Hands: 474
      Hero (BTN): $20.10 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 17, 3B: 8, AF: 3.1, Hands: 74162
      SB: $19.80 - VPIP: 40, PFR: 20, 3B: 0, AF: 0.0, Hands: 5

      Pre Flop: ($0.30) Hero is BTN with Q :spade: T :spade:
      UTG raises to $0.70, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.70, 1 fold, BB calls $0.50

      Flop: ($2.20) K :heart: K :diamond: 6 :spade: (3 players)
      BB folds, UTG bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

      Turn: ($4.40) 8 :heart: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $2.20, UTG calls $2.20

      River: ($8.80) 9 :spade: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets $16.10, UTG folds
  • 5 replies
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      flop - i dont really like the float here. utg betting into 2 persons is strong and we may not be able to win with Qhigh at showdown

      turn - what are you trying to bluff out that would have bet the flop? A high? pocket pairs?

      river- when he called the turn the minimum he has is suaully a pair possibly QQ-99 and i dont think hes folding those on the river.

      cgf
    • ezeras
      ezeras
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.02.2012 Posts: 181
      if he's not folding QQ-99 so we could take this line and exploit this leak because if we would play this line with Kx we would make tons of money... I have taken this line of play with monsters and they haven't called me in similiar spots yet... So I still think it's profitable to play my line. It could be a bluff my bet but also a value shove and I thought this player folds more time than calls (don't think he could call me 33% of the time)
    • ezeras
      ezeras
      Bronze
      Joined: 21.02.2012 Posts: 181
      BTW when he showed weakness on the turn I took line to turn bet/ river shove. If the player could not fold to these bluff, so I would take this line with Kx. But I think he would fold to this bluff because of his made timings and stats.

      I write my opinion here that you could change it if I'm wrong
    • cutegoldfish
      cutegoldfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.11.2009 Posts: 4,335
      Let's assume you are right and he folds 99-QQ.

      How does his hand range look like when he calls your turn bet? I'm thinking a tonne of Kx, some flush draws and some middle pairs. He ain't folding Kx which is going to be a big part of his range and that makes your bluff bad even I'd you are right that he's folding everything else.

      Your focus should be on his range and how he plays his hands
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      Call flop without equity :facepalm: Good luck on distance.