[NL2-NL10] Nl4 SH: TT

    • acetbfish
      acetbfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2011 Posts: 804
      The villain is playing with stats 38/20/0, fold to flop cbet 1/1 and bet IP vs missed cbet 2/3 in 47 hands.

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.04(BB) Replayer
      SB ($1.30)
      BB ($3.26)
      UTG ($4.20)
      UTG+1 ($2.86)
      Hero ($3.88)
      BTN ($2.19)

      Dealt to Hero T:club: T:diamond:

      fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.12, BTN calls $0.12, fold, fold

      FLOP ($0.30) 6:heart: 4:heart: J:club:

      Hero checks, BTN checks

      TURN ($0.30) 6:heart: 4:heart: J:club: 7:diamond:

      Hero bets $0.20,

      My main concern here is the flop. Since he seems to bet generally IP vs missed cbets, even though I have a small sample, and since i don't have really any reads about his flop play vs cbet, isn't it better to let him bet?
  • 3 replies
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Hello,

      I still prefer cbetting myself here.

      Check/calling puts us in a tough spot where we don't really know how to play turn/river, and we do only have a mid pair.

      On the other hand, if we do bet here, we can make him fold some overcards, and could still get called by PPs/6x/FDs.

      Best,
      Plamen
    • acetbfish
      acetbfish
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.03.2011 Posts: 804
      If there weren't any draws on the flop, could checking make any sense?
    • kymupa
      kymupa
      Bronze
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364
      Well, I would really check there as well.

      See, the problem are not the draws, but the fact that we become vulnerable to his aggression on the later streets and this is just going to put us in a spot where it is quite more likely to make a bad decision.
      Lets say you play this hand three times in a row, and all of the times he bets the flop and the turn, and on the fourth time, you decide to call him down and you end up just paying his QJ off - would you feel stupid? I mean, it's not that it is a bad play, but it is quite likely that he never bluffs the river, but since we did put ourselves into a tough spot on the previous plays, we now have the desire to call him down which is out of our standard play.