[NL20-NL50] Nl20 Sh A9

    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,065
      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.20(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($22.20)
      BB ($49.43)
      UTG ($20.46)
      CO ($22.64)
      BTN ($9.59)

      Dealt to Hero 9:diamond: A:heart:

      fold, fold, BTN calls $0.20, Hero raises to $1, fold, BTN calls $0.80

      FLOP ($2.20) 6:spade: T:heart: K:spade:

      Hero checks, BTN bets $1, Hero folds

      BTN wins $2.09

      notes:
      donk 1 bb AKT w KJ 2nd pair, donk 2 bb balnk turn, donk 2 bb blank river
      donk 1 BB 662 w A5s BDFD, call 4bb raise, don k1 bb A w TP, call 1/2 raise, donk Q 1 bb



      fcbet IP 35

      he rarely folds to cbets IP, so no cbet. And he bets half of the time vs missed cbets. ANd his bet is small. So my c/f looks weak. Maybe had to c/c and reeavaluate?
  • 5 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      I would just cbet the Flop.

      His fold to cbet is 49%
      His preflop range is just so wide here, so he is not connecting to this flop that often
      betting is better than the other options of c/c and c/f
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,065
      His fold to cbet is 49%


      maybe you did not pay attention - but his fcbet IP is 35. Still cbet flop?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      I don't see that stat in the popup. Is it in another popup? Besides, your sample is really small, so I'll use the more general stats like overall Fold vs Flop cbet as those tend to be more accurate with smaller sample sizes.
    • SPeedFANat1c
      SPeedFANat1c
      Gold
      Joined: 04.01.2009 Posts: 5,065
      I wrote it after the popup, its is not in general popup :)
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      ah i c, ok.

      Your overall sample isn't too high but this guy plays 60VPIP preflop so that's thrice as much as the average player so your postflop stats should converge more quickly.

      I'm still uncertain whether to trust this Fold to Cbet IP stat too much, I think bet or check/fold are both valid options though, this spot is not necessarily too clear cut. With the Ace or 9 of spade I would definitely be betting though.