[NL20-NL50] NL50 SH - AKo: 3bet pot

    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      UTG reg

      SB:36/23
      2.6 af
      19% fold vs 3bet
      53% fold vs cbet 3bet pot
      39% donkbet flop (in 9 vs raise fold 5 and call 4)
      55% wwsf
      43% agg river
      29% wtsd
      1k hands


      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      UTG: $37.72 (75.4 bb)
      MP: $50 (100 bb)
      Hero (CO): $50 (100 bb)
      BTN: $47.41 (94.8 bb)
      SB: $54.09 (108.2 bb)
      BB: $20 (40 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A K
      UTG raises to $1.25, MP folds, Hero raises to $3.50, BTN folds, SB calls $3.25, 2 folds

      Flop: ($8.75) A 3 A (2 players)
      SB bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50

      Turn: ($21.75) Q (2 players)
      SB bets $8, Hero calls $8

      River: ($37.75) T (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero ?

      Should raise/call the turn?
      And what if he shoves the river..
  • 18 replies
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      i think the best line here is to even raise the flop

      he is donking a lot, but his sizing and the donk overall (he isnt very aggro) imo indicates either trips, some underpairs he doesnt feel comfortable c/cing with a few times or some rare FD's

      he isnt calling additional barrels with underpairs imo anyways, and with trips you are definitely going to be able to get it in on the flop, he just wont fold trips, ever... and its saves you from a horrible board rollout like this one, when u have no idea where are u at on the river and whether u should even vbet...

      so i think his calling/even jamming flop range will be much much more wider than his turn calling range if u raise + river calling range

      u have the nuts here, so just go and get the max value from trips/FD's underpairs on the flop cause whatever he has he is not gonna like 50% of the cards on the turn + u protect vs FD's

      there are just so many scare cards for his range i think raising and trying to get it in otf/ott dodgin as many bad cards as possible is going to outweight the times he is going to have air/smaller PP and just fold
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,860
      agree, raise flop allday everyday

      cbh river, you probably have the best hand quite often but you can't b/c and he probably doesn't call worse either because a) he doesn't have that many worse hands b) this runout sucks (his range improved, you also might be perceived to have fd)
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      Dont you guys think that might exist a decent portion of pure bluffs on the flop? And against those the only way to make more money is by calling..
      Ax he wont go anywhere, if he gets it in flop he will get it in latter anyway.
      This board run wont happen that often..

      PS: Some moderator can move this to hands forum?
    • RasTweet
      RasTweet
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.12.2009 Posts: 4,553
      Done
    • double2
      double2
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 04.11.2008 Posts: 14,642
      I agree with Lunitis, I do think he has a lot of airball on flop so I prefer to call flop. Turn however doesn't look like a bluff anymore. so I would raise and get it in happily
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey guys,

      Originally posted by double2
      I agree with Lunitis, I do think he has a lot of airball on flop so I prefer to call flop. Turn however doesn't look like a bluff anymore. so I would raise and get it in happily
      I agree. On the flop, although I expect to be able to get value from quite some worse Ax, flushdraws and maybe a bit of value from midpairs (not too likely though) I prefer calling since the bet is substantial, we get money in easily.

      On the turn though, he now has more hands that picked up showdown value and judging by bet size I would be confident in saying that more often than not it's a hand with showdown value or maybe a draw that wants a reasonably cheap showdown.

      As played, just shove river. Ax doesn't fold, flush and better usually keep the betting lead so we have the best hand >75% of the time imo.
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      But would you raise the turn or just call?
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Yes, I would raise the turn. Ax never gets away, I don't expect him to put in much money with anything else anyway, when we just call we usually let him see a cheap river. Sometimes he bets small on river as well but he also draws out some other times and you are almost never folding.
    • zumpar
      zumpar
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.02.2012 Posts: 1,185
      i dont agree at all

      i mean what the hell is fish's 3b overcalling OOP range here? even fish have some sort of sense here....

      is basically TT,JJ,AQ,AJs, sometimes ATs,AK, KQs and small PP's

      now if he donk flop with this sizing he pretty much has TT+ here or trips about 90% of the time, so why the heck would you wanna slopplay your AK when his range so strong here? when is the last time u saw a fish fold trips on the flop?

      get it in here on the flop and avoid any cards that weaken his range, or in some cases, yours....

      how do you think the fish likes Q/K/:heart: on the turn if he is holding TT/JJ? cause that pretty much the only part of range that will make a difference in terms of your lines towards the river..

      and there are also cards u wont like here either? i mean, how about that Q on the turn?

      its not scary really, but it just keeps you from getting pretty much any additional value out of TT/JJ, and also, 3 combos of AQ just made it....

      ur just gonna have so much trouble of getting value on so many many runouts, its just worthless to slowplay here imo...


      about his flop bluffs? and how many does he really have? do you really expect him to just donk 3/4 pot anything else than TT+, Ax, KQh? do you really expect him to cold call a 3b with 78cc and then just lead it on the flop? i find it very hard to believe

      also, when he has the small PP's here and donks them on the flop do you really expect to get more value out of slowplaying your AK? i hardly doubt that
    • Lunitis
      Lunitis
      Gold
      Joined: 22.02.2009 Posts: 20,132
      Do you think its easier to take value by raising? Expect him to call with JJ-99 vs raise?
      I think its more likely to take value from those pairs just by calling flop..
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,860
      i don't find it unlikely at all that he doesn't believe your line when you raise when there are two A on the board and a fd showing, also people raise donkbets all the time.

      it's all about the levelz, you have more info on him than us so if you think he is air heavy/will believe you when you raise then you have to call ofc
      i don't see him being air heavy at all myself, even fish don't just coldcall a 3bet vs utg oop with air every day
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      A think raising flop is awful, even if there is a possible fd here. He has too many bluffs, and looks pretty agro, I am pretty sure hi will always continue barreling on later streets with whole his range. I am just calling flop and turn and pushing river...
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,860
      i think it all comes down to what you think his actual preflop range is.

      why do you think he is super air heavy?
      he's just 36/23/2.6af which isn't completely clueless, it's not like he's playing 80/40 with super out of line tendencies.
      i think his range might something like AT+, Axs, 88+ and some random heart connectors, at best he has two spades.

      in any case i just don't see why it seems that we are assuming that 1) he has a lot of air after cold calling this 3bet oop 2) he'll just randomly decide to fire 2 or 3 streets with his air.
      i can see merits in calling but this isn't really one of them.
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      OK, let's assume you just called the flop and there was heart turn. What will you do? Call his bet for full-house value, planning to fold any heart river, or fold any river without strengthening?
      Our hand can't be folded on 3-flush board 100 bb deep anyway. The opponent already made -EV call with suited connector preflop, and you still have some equity. So by just calldowning you save his range wide, it is anyway hand we want to stack with...
    • Tomaloc
      Tomaloc
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.01.2011 Posts: 6,860
      a raise isn't really intended to protect our hand, it's just to make him commit asap (on the turn) with draws and weaker Ax/pocket pairs.
      high cards/hearts might be action killers for him

      that said i think it's kinda whatever, we keep in a bit more air and weak hands if we call and we stack off faster against most Ax/hearts/pp when we raise.
      just want some comments on what you guys think his pre range looks like though, it's obviously (imo) not suuuuper wide
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      Why do we need to play our hand fast? We are in a 3bet pot with almost a moster. If he called our 3bet with weak ace he will pay anyway. Even if he isn't wide, even if he has 1 combo of huge bluff it will make calling much better.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Quite as few comments here.. will read through them and answer later today.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      OK, managed to read through all the comments...

      @all: His preflop calling range is usually something like this:

      JJ-22,AQs-A2s,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo-AJo,KQo

      Now, he has about 16 Ax combos which we stack whenever we raise. Fair enaough.. but he also has about 115 combos of hands he could donk with that he won't put in any more money once we raise. If you think he donks air like 1%, then he leads 1 air combo and the decision is clear. Once you estimate he leads around 5-10% then it's not so clear anymore because that air is a lot of combos. This actually assumes he leads all Ax hands which is ofc not true, he will not lead all Ax hands.

      His donkbet percentage is 39%. Even if we assume it's about 20% he still has 50% of the time an airball because Ax is about 10% of his total range.

      Regarding action killer cards, there are not that many compared to action generating cards imo.. he doesn't fold his trips often enough to consider that a major factor when his bluff ratio is so high here imo.