[NL20-NL50] nl20 sh A8o

    • DrDunne
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,337
      Prima, $0.10/$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $20 (100 bb)
      SB: $7.54 (37.7 bb)
      BB: $18.99 (94.9 bb)
      MP: $27.16 (135.8 bb)
      CO: $36.21 (181 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with A 8
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, SB calls $0.40, BB calls $0.30

      Flop: ($1.50) 5 A K (3 players)
      SB checks, BB bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, SB calls $0.20

      Turn: ($2.10) 8 (3 players)
      SB checks, BB bets $0.20, Hero raises to $2.30, SB folds, BB calls $2.10

      River: ($6.70) A (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $17 and is all-in

      BB is 64/12 over 24 hands. SB is 36/27 over 12 hands.

      on the flop i really played it terribly. but i actually didn't know what to do. it's only a mindonk and looks so weak but at the same time i didn't know what worse would call if i raised this flop. and again at the same time i didn't want to give FDs and gutshots a free turn... what should i be thinking in this spot on the flop?

      turn value

      river i don't think he folds an Ax hand ever so i just shipped for max value...
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      Flop: I'm just treating his minbet as a check and I would definitely raise for value here. His range is going to contain a bunch of draws and even some KX hands, and our kicker is decent as well, we are beating the lower Ace rag hands.

      River: The logic is sound, but you need to think in terms of combos.

      With 55 here, I like the ship. There are 2 As left in the deck, and 3 Ks left in the deck. Assuming villain always folds his busted draws, calls KX and AX always vs a pot bet, and only calls with AX+ vs an overbet, then an overbet with 55 makes more sense.

      I'm just going to oversimplify this problem for your understanding, note that this is just a rough estimation. I assume that villain always loses when he calls, and also that he plays as many AX combos as KX combos preflop (which is probably not true).

      Vs an overbet
      2 out of 5 times, villain calls $16 with AX and loses
      3 out of 5 times, he folds KX

      EV = 0.4 X 16 = 6.4

      Vs a pot bet
      5 out of 5 times, villain calls and loses 6.70$ with AX/KX

      EV = 6.7

      You can see that EV of the overbet is slightly less in my example when we have 55, but if we did some adjustments (like adding the fact that villain has more AX combos preflop as compared to KX combos), then the EV of the overbet is higher

      Now we have A8, so we block trip combos. There is only 1 Ace left in the deck, and 3 Kings. In order to justify overbetting here, we need our overbet to be >3X the size of the regular pot bet in order to make more from an overbet.