[NL2-NL10] NL5 FR - AJs

    • JCSeerup
      JCSeerup
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 1,039
      No Limit Hold'em $0,02/$0,05
      PokerStars
      9 players
      Formatted by pokercopilot.com - Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking

      Stacks:
      UTG - UTG ($5,32) VPIP 12, PFR 10, F3B 94, Hands 501
      UTG+1 - UTG+1 ($4,09)
      UTG+2 - UTG+2 ($5,00)
      MP - MP ($9,92)
      MP2 - MP2 ($15,02) VPIP 32, PFR 13, F3B 62, Hands 44
      CO - CO ($4,99)
      BTN - BTN ($4,41)
      SB - Hero ($7,10)
      BB - BB ($9,22)

      Preflop: ($0,07, 9 players) Hero is SB with J:spade: A:spade:
      UTG raises to $0,20, 3 folds, MP2 calls $0,20, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0,65, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0,45

      Flop: 4:diamond: 4:heart: 9:club: ($1,55, 2 players)
      Hero bets $1,04

      Working on squeeze ranges, I make the squeeze since UTG is folding a lot against 3B, and MP2 seems kinda fishy. Is this a good play?

      OTF, I like the cbet, but think it's too big in the future I would rather bet about 50-55%. I think villain is missing most of the time on tis board, so I can take the pot down a good amount of the time, but at the same time if he have a pp he is not folding, but I would still have equity against him.

      Are my thought totally wrong here?
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Preflop: With AJo I may consider squeezing. With AJs I think you can just call here. Besides, UTG looks pretty tight so I don't really want to attack someone who is probably only opening 10% or less.

      Flop: Yes, bet 50%. In 3b pots, the stack to pot ratio is smaller. We don't need to bet so large to get stacks in by the River. And board is so dry as well.

      If you bet half pot, you only need your bluff to work 33% of the time to breakeven. When you bet 2/3 pot, you need it to work 40% of the time. That's a significant difference.