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[NL20-NL50] NL25 sh - thin value?

    • KillerFishes
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      GTECH G2 (Boss) - €0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      UTG: €22.65
      CO: €24.63
      BTN: €45.35
      SB: €58.04
      Hero (BB): €55.58

      SB posts SB €0.12, Hero posts BB €0.25

      Pre Flop: (pot: €0.37) Hero has K:diamond: A:diamond:

      UTG calls €0.25, CO raises to €1.12, fold, fold, Hero raises to €3.24, fold, CO calls €2.12

      Flop: (€6.85, 2 players) 2:diamond: 3:club: 2:heart:
      Hero bets €3.75, CO calls €3.75

      Turn: (€14.35, 2 players) T:club:
      Hero checks, CO checks

      River: (€14.35, 2 players) K:club:
      Hero checks, CO bets €7.17, Hero raises to €48.59 and is all-in, CO calls €10.47 and is all-in

      CO shows T:diamond: T:heart: (Full House, Tens full of Twos) (Pre 54%, Flop 71%, Turn 100%)
      Hero shows K:diamond: A:diamond: (Two Pair, Kings and Twos) (Pre 46%, Flop 29%, Turn 0%)
      CO wins €47.18


      not sure about this one. I got no info about my opponent (12 hands no crazy things yet) .. By his iso sizing against a fish I'd assume he's rather strong here.

      Flop - +EV everytime and default without any info
      Turn - not sure he would stab like 100% so I'd be probably just x/c once and ch/f, when he checks back it's giveup/sd value (Ahigh) I think he stabs FD more likely than same hand not suited? (for example QcJc stabs 100% and QhJd not.. do you agree?)
      River - if he hits the king he always bets himself + he can turn some sd value (A high or low pps on bluff) .. + I think he has like almost never a flush .. => I'm shoving for value from KQ and mby KJs?

      Not sure about his defending range tho .. :)

  • 4 replies
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909

      I agree that he bets any Kx, don't agree that he calls it of with KQ, KJ all the time.

      Most importantly though, after you cbet, you put some floats in his range which is reasonable and assume he would very often bluff on the turn. When he cheks the turn he is not bluffing therefore he has showdown value.

      If he has showdown value, I expect you to see a check back on the river not turning a midpair into a bluff to fold out a non-pair hand. I prefer betting river for sure just because of how his range looks like.
    • KillerFishes
      Joined: 11.07.2010 Posts: 2,313
      Well, I assume he's not bluffing the turn with 100% freq. and he might turn some Ax on the river or even worse hands he had just checked ott.

      OTR he's not calling anything else than Kx and maybe Tx (what % he checks back?).

      I just see it from the point I always want to give a player chance to make a mistake. If his calling range ~ value betting range I see more value in checking for some extra value from bluffs? Even if it should be 1c .. =)

      And if you bet how much? Do you size it against random Kx or pairs/weak Tx?
    • pokerferrer
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      Agreed, his check on the turn means most of the time showdown value. That means we have to bet river for value. I would call all-in because his stack is not full and he has probably some fishy tendencies.
    • EmanuelC16
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,909
      Well, if he bets he usually will bet smaller than we want from my experience.. that means we need him to bluff quite a bit more often and it's hard to actually pin point his frequency and make calcs.

      I personally rely on people calling too much in such spots instead of bluffing too much but that is ofc a matter of what you've seen so far and anyone can mistakenly perceive people as more passive than they actually are.