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[NL2-NL10] [SH] High cards on paired board OOP

    • GreenPiece
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) ZOOM - Holdem - 6 players

      Opponent unknown

      BTN: $6.24
      SB: $6.98
      Hero (BB): $5.00
      UTG: $5.97
      MP: $20.50
      CO: $4.34

      SB posts SB $0.02, Hero posts BB $0.05

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has Q:heart: A:club:

      fold, fold, CO calls $0.05, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.25, CO calls $0.20

      Flop: ($0.52, 2 players) 6:heart: 6:spade: 3:heart:
      Hero ?

      1) no bluff bet is possible
      2) value bet? we are at the same situation on the turn then if he calls & no scare cards appear
      3) c\c one street? will he bet enough bluffs to justify it?

      What to do in such spots?
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,795

      What do you know about villain? We know he's a limper right? Assuming his range is wide, you can probably just c/c 2 streets. AQ high is doing really well on low paired flops.

      Vs a 35% limping range - Assuming he bets Flop with his entire range
      Board: 6s6h3h
      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 36.59% 33.21% 3.38% { 22+, A2s+, K3s+, Q5s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, A5o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
      MP3 63.41% 60.03% 3.38% { AcQh }

      1. If we bet here, we are not bluffing out better hands. You could argue for a thin value bet vs worse Ace highs (he has worse AX hands and maybe K high overcard which may call the Flop bet) but I think the EV of checking is probably higher

      2. I don't think your hand is strong enough to value bet 2 streets when you are readless here. For this reason, I Don't really want to bet flop and play guessing games on the Turn when we have 0 info. It's probably safer to c/c twice and then decide on River - This not only ensures that villain's range is as wide as possible, but it also helps in making the decision simpler.

      3. I think the average fish has no balls to fire thrice, but they will often fire once with a really wide range. The second turn bet is usually made with a slightly tighter range, but these guys usually bet 50-65% of the pot and we only need to have <30% equity to justify a call and I think we definitely have that. Don't forget we also have 2 overcards which will be good most of the time if we do hit.
    • GreenPiece
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      Thanks for your analysis! :s_thumbsup: I thought somewhat similar thus c\c one street and had doubts about playing c\c on the turn but the card connected with the board and he bet 3\4 so I decided to fold:

      Flop: ($0.52, 2 players) 6:heart: 6:spade: 3:heart:
      Hero checks, CO bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

      Turn: ($1.12, 2 players) 5:spade:
      Hero checks, CO bets $0.75, fold

      CO wins $1.07