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[NL20-NL50] nl 50 99 fr

    • sandraardnas
      Joined: 11.01.2012 Posts: 2,034
      Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 8 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      MP1: $35.80 (71.6 bb)
      MP2: $50 (100 bb)
      MP3: $20 (40 bb)
      CO: $37.27 (74.5 bb)
      Hero (BTN): $73.89 (147.8 bb)
      SB: $53.13 (106.3 bb)
      BB: $20 (40 bb)
      UTG+2: $50.75 (101.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9 9
      5 folds, Hero raises to $1.10, SB folds, BB raises to $2.50, Hero calls $1.40

      Flop: ($5.25) T 4 4 (2 players)
      BB bets $3, Hero calls $3

      Turn: ($11.25) 8 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks

      River: ($11.25) 8 (2 players)
      BB bets $7.50, Hero folds

      $11.25 pot ($0.51 rake)
      Final Board: T 4 4 8 8
      Hero mucked 9 9 and lost (-$5.50 net)
      BB mucked and won $10.74 ($5.24 net)

      villaing just made second 3bet at me in a row.
      Do you think its enough to 4b/call 99 against midstack in BW?
      I called expecting him to cbet bluff once and give up or even give up on flop.
      He cbets, I call, he checks and I check cause theres no value.
      And on River he bets. I dont think he bluffs blank card cause there is little fold equity, most likely he has pot controlling Tx or JJ, so I made a fold.
  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Preflop: Your sample is not too high with only 100 hands. Yet I think it's safe to say that vs a 30/22 (the only accurate stats in a 100h sample is VPIP and PFR), we are probably good to go with 99 in late positions vs a mid stack. Make it $5 and call it off.

      Flop: Call

      Turn: Check. Your alternative is to bet 25-30% of the pot for thin value/protection vs Ace highs

      River: This bet check bet line looks so much like value.

      Is this guy a fish or a reg? Vs a reg folding is fine, vs a fish you have to call here.
    • sandraardnas
      Joined: 11.01.2012 Posts: 2,034
      well, he had blocked tracking and didnt make fishy moves like limiing and calling with garbage, so I treated him like a reg.
      And I agree its call against a fish, cause fishies doesnt know what is folding equity or anything at all and could bluff here thinking he can represent many 8's or wathever he would like to represent.