[NL20-NL50] NL 50 there si value in this raise?

    • Yozan
      Yozan
      Platinum
      Joined: 01.01.2010 Posts: 2,181
      Villain is 30/15 3b 0 AF 1.5 donk 2/4 WTSD 15 ,fold BB vs STEAL 0 sample 70hand

      CO: $47.50 (95 bb)
      BTN: $57.89 (115.8 bb)
      SB: $53.33 (106.7 bb)
      BB: $56.01 (112 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $50 (100 bb)
      MP: $58.67 (117.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with A 8
      Hero raises to $1.50, 4 folds, BB calls $1

      Flop: ($3.25) Q 8 3 (2 players)
      BB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

      Turn: ($6.25) 5 (2 players)
      BB bets $4.50, Hero calls $4.50

      River: ($15.25) A (2 players)
      BB bets $10.50, Hero raises to $24.50, BB raises to $48.51 and is all-in, Hero calls $18 and is all-in


      Don't know to much about this guy,didn't saw him doing something special at the table,but on this small sample I don/t considering folding flop or turn with my 2nd pair TK.
      OTR the call is obvious,but I go for the raise because I block 88,I don't except him not to 3b pre QQ (even if the 3b sample is not that concludent)
      So hands like Q8s,two pairs +FD A8 :diamond: :diamond: ,A5 :diamond: :diamond: ,or any other AhFD will call(regarding his stats on this sample ,seems he is a weaker player)

      So which is the optimal play??
      call,shove??I don't think I can fold once I raise for value OTR

      TY,best regards :f_biggrin:

      OBVIOUS once I have this image about villain I don't consider that this type of player is positional aware that much!
  • 3 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      U can try solving this spot yourself first and ill check your workings.

      Firstly what made hands do u put him on when he calls preflop vs utg and leads 3 streets? Rmb he is 30/15 and such loose passive players tend to overdefend their bb.

      Check your equity vs a range of hands that would likely call a river raise. Ill set the lower boundary of this range to be AX (mayne he donks flop and turn w A:dX.) Do we have >50% equity? Is it close or are we more than a 60% fav vs such a range?

      Next decide what hands he is likely to reshove over our river raise. Pot odds we get are 18% so we need 18% equity. My guess is that we are committed here in most instances which is why i feel that perhaps u made ur raise on the river a little too large (maybe u should minraise) or maybe not raise in the first place.
    • Yozan
      Yozan
      Platinum
      Joined: 01.01.2010 Posts: 2,181
      1st of all I really appreciate ure answers,are very helpful.TY for the effort u put in sharing ure knowledge.

      Regarding the hand,I was trying to do the calculations with equilab,but gut stucked ,at your question what part of his range will donk 3way,in fact the most obvious thing is the turn donk who def scream for value(regarding his loose passive tendencies).

      I would not continue because I realize ,it was a ridicolous play (without any reads,or history) ,calling is fine,maybe a mr/fold can't be so bad if we assume that ,Hero is facing a HU pot vs a fish.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      If his AF was 0.5, I would probably just fold the Turn. AF of 1.5 with a 30/15 VPIP PFR means that he's kind of on the passive side, but he's still capable of making stupid bets for no good reason.

      I think his donking range on the Turn still contains some flush draws, some 3X/8X hands, and some straght draws like JT J9 T9, the occasional monster (which IMO is really rare cos they usually take stronger lines with sets), and some QX hands so I think with 8X with the top kicker it's barely enough to call the Turn again

      On the River, we beat A3 and Q8, chop with A8, beat A:dX, lose to a few combos of weirdly played sets and AQ, maybe he still bets some Qx hands (though I think he's way likelier to c/c river with QX).

      Do we have value vs a river donking range? I'm not exactly sure about the answer here. I think AQ would be a clear raise, and set is a snap raise.