[NL20-NL50] Nl25 Aa

    • DarkAwi
      DarkAwi
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,288
      Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $30.72 (122.9 bb)
      Hero (BB): $25 (100 bb)
      MP: $26.83 (107.3 bb)
      CO: $25.89 (103.6 bb)
      BTN: $13.85 (55.4 bb)
      UTG: $23.50 (94 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with A A
      UTG raises to $0.50, 4 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, UTG calls $2

      Flop: ($5.10) T Q Q (2 players)
      Hero bets $2.75, UTG calls $2.75

      Turn: ($10.60) 7 (2 players)
      Hero bets $5.75, UTG calls $5.75

      River: ($22.10) T (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $12.50 and is all-in, Hero calls $12.50

      Can we x/c here? The board is quite ugly, but every draw missed, and he is probably a fish, because of his stack size, and his 2 bb open. First hand, had no HUD.
  • 9 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi DarkAwi,

      Preflop: looks fine

      Postflop: Betting both flop and turn is a bit thin to begin with and on the river we only beat a draw that may not even bluff given the texture.

      I think there are definitely a lot more combos of Qx and Tx than missed draws.
    • DarkAwi
      DarkAwi
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,288
      Yeah, but against a fish, I have to bet flop/turn, don't you think? I think a fishy guy will call 1/2 pot bets will all draws, Tx, maybe even worse if he is CS'ish, and since I don't block A his range could be quite wide, and I need only 25% EQ on the river. Also, I'd expect Qx to raise sometimes on flop/turn, because the board is quite draw heavy.

      What do you think about this range:


      Asztal: T:diamond: Q:club: Q:diamond:  7:heart:  T:club:
              Equity Win Tie
      MP2        45.45%  45.45%     0.00% { AhAc }
      MP3        54.55%  54.55%     0.00% { TT, 77, AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, QTs+, JTs, T9s, AdJd, KdJd, Ad9d, Ad8d, 9d8d, 9c8c, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, AQo-ATo, KJo+, QJo }


      If we give him a range that beats us 100%: TT, 77, AQs, ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo, ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, and only KJo as busted draw, we'll have the 25% we need.


      Asztal: Q:diamond: T:diamond: Q:club:  7:heart:  T:club:
             Equity Win Tie
      MP2        25.00%  25.00%     0.00% { AhAc }
      MP3        75.00%  75.00%     0.00% { TT, 77, AQs, ATs, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AQo, ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      There is also bluffing pocket pairs 77-99, mb weaker. But I would never call it, for me it is just a standart check-fold river without reads, because almost all Qx will play that way.
    • DarkAwi
      DarkAwi
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,288
      Yeah, I don't say I'm going to be good 99% of the time. But I don't even have to, if im good once out of 4 times, then the call is BE.
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      I am pretty sure any unknown opponent will bluff here with whole stack much less frequently. You really need specific read or you must make decision from you previous dinamic with him. We can't call just because we have to win 1 time of 4 and because we have pocket aces...
    • DarkAwi
      DarkAwi
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,288
      I didn't call because I have pocket aces :) I called, because his range is made from Qx, Tx, and a busted draws (if the range I wrote in the eariler post is correct, then he has almost as many busted draws, as Qx,Tx). Not sure how many busted draw will he bluff, but if he just bluff with half of them, then I'm good. I see a lot of fishes bluffing BDs nowadays.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Remember one thing: his value hands almost always bet the river, especially Qx and maybe some Tx check back occasionally.

      Now his bluffs don't always bet and in fact on such board they may rarely do so.

      So you actually need him to bluff quite a bit from the range he has to be around breakeven.

      Also, how can a range that beats us 100% give us 25% equity? IF it beats us 100% then we have 0 equity (on the river).
    • DarkAwi
      DarkAwi
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.06.2010 Posts: 3,288
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Also, how can a range that beats us 100% give us 25% equity? IF it beats us 100% then we have 0 equity (on the river).
      I meant it, if I only give him value hands (beats us 100%) and only KJo as a hand turned into bluff, we are BE. Not to mention the lots of missed FDs, gutshots. But it's hard to tell how many BDs will he bluff with.

      If a river is a total blank, like 2, what would you play? Still check/fold?
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by DarkAwi
      Originally posted by BogdanPS
      Also, how can a range that beats us 100% give us 25% equity? IF it beats us 100% then we have 0 equity (on the river).
      I meant it, if I only give him value hands (beats us 100%) and only KJo as a hand turned into bluff, we are BE. Not to mention the lots of missed FDs, gutshots. But it's hard to tell how many BDs will he bluff with.

      If a river is a total blank, like 2, what would you play? Still check/fold?
      On a blank river we can argument a small valuebet since Tx, JJ and even other pairs can still call.