[NL20-NL50] 50NL JJ FH facing river shove

    • dozeer
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BTN): $59.90 (119.8 bb)
      SB: $82 (164 bb)
      BB: $20.25 (40.5 bb)
      UTG: $56.35 (112.7 bb)
      MP: $11.05 (22.1 bb)
      CO: $51.75 (103.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
      UTG folds, MP calls $0.50, CO folds, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $2, BB calls $1.75, MP folds

      Flop: ($7.25) 6 2 2 (3 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $4.75, SB calls $4.75, BB folds

      Turn: ($16.75) 2 (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $16, SB calls $16

      River: ($48.75) T (2 players)
      SB bets $38.25

      villain is unknown.

      I just dont see him leading here with worse almost never, he'd have to turn small ppair into a bluff or somethin..

      folding seems pretty dirty..

      what do you think ?

  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694

      Honestly I think a hand like AhKh or AhQh or KhQh could be a possible part of his range.

      His pot bet is kind of weird. IMO he only reps
      A2s (1 combo)
      66 (3 combos)
      TT (3 combos)

      His line is most consistent with TT. We need him to have around 3 combos of air in order to justify calling here.

      This is a tricky spot - You could choose to call with KK/AA and fold QQ/JJ here. Those hands are kind of similar in relative hand strength, but I think occasionally you'll find QQ and JJ being played in this fashion so i think there's a slight difference in the relative hand strength of the different big pocket pairs.

      When thinking in terms of game theory, given his bet size we probably need to defend 55% of our bluff catching range to be unexploitable here (assuming he is balanced in his betting frequencies). So I think calling KK+ and folding JJ/QQ is fine.
    • dozeer
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      Solid analysis. I wish I did something like that when I was playing the hand.

      I like the idea of calling KK, AA and folding QQ,JJ in this spot and I am happy that you suggested that cos I had the same idea before I posted the hand here.

      I try to approach these spots with optimal play (game theory) when I cant use a read.