[NL2-NL10] nl10 sh AJo

    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Silver
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      BTN: $10 (100 bb)
      SB: $11.55 (115.5 bb)
      Hero (BB): $10.65 (106.5 bb)
      UTG: $15.59 (155.9 bb)
      MP: $10 (100 bb)
      CO: $10.21 (102.1 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J A
      3 folds, BTN raises to $0.25, SB folds, Hero calls $0.15

      Flop: ($0.55) 2 2 3 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

      Turn: ($1.15) A (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

      River: ($2.55) 6 (2 players)
      Hero checks, BTN bets $2.20, Hero???

      villain is 24/21 over 73 hands.

      i think my check call on the flop is okay, he misses this flop quite a lot but looking at this hand now i didn't have much of a plan for the turn/river when i made this call on the flop. what do you think my plan should be? i think i should expect to get barrelled quite a bit on many turns so maybe this favours a fold on the flop?

      on this turn only thing i can do is call.

      on the river i'm not sure if he'd be value betting worse Ax or 3barrel bluffing and i don't know whether to call or not. its a pretty big bet so i don't really know what to do.
  • 4 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Hi.

      You have to call here as u are at the top of your range. Look at what u have here mostly mod pairs and ax. If u are folding aj u are folding everything besides full houses.

      At lower limits people may often fire turn to rep the ace and sometimes follow through with their bluffs on the river
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Silver
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      Originally posted by mbml
      Hi.

      You have to call here as u are at the top of your range. Look at what u have here mostly mod pairs and ax. If u are folding aj u are folding everything besides full houses.
      hey

      i'm sort of unclear about why this is important. i've heard this sort of reasoning being said before but never really understand why for example i should call here because i'm at the top of my range. i don't think i should count on worse AX value betting, and if he isnt value betting worse AX then he most likely isn't value betting here without trips/FH/flush. i don't have any reads to say that he's out of line and is 3barrel bluffing me, so the way i'm seeing this is that while i might be at the top of my range, i only beat a bluff. in this hand it's not like any draws busted for me to bluffcatch on some blank river... maybe you can explain a little more about the whole "top of the range" thing and why it's so important?

      thanks!
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,698
      Never folding the top of your range is important to be less exploitable. While u have no reads on villain being too out of line, i dont think u have any reads to suggest he is super passive as well right? At limits like nl10/25, my guess is that people get obsessed with the idea of representing the turned ace and trying to push u off mid pocketpairs by the river. Note though that the turn bet is bad as a bluff cos ur floprange contains many ace highs

      Its precisely because we are lacking in reads which is why we should be playing closer to the game theory optimal solution - so that it is harder for us to get exploited and make a mistake.

      Just to give u an analogy from game theory with rock paper scissors. If ur opponent is unknown, the best defensive strategy u could use is to play R P S 1/3 of the time each. Right now u are suggesting an extreme play which is exploitive - fold every single time which is the equivalent of playing rock 100% of the time. That could be good if villain is playing scissors always (never bluffing). Is that the case though?

      Maybe this analogy isnt the best so feel free to ask more questions, im not sure if i have adequetely answered ur questions.

      1. He can have worse ax hands for sure. Maybe its less likely though since he is potting the river. Rmb that he is value betting vs your mid pocketpairs.
      2. I think that he is going to be bluffing a ton for reasons mentioned previously.
    • DrDunne
      DrDunne
      Silver
      Joined: 29.12.2010 Posts: 3,378
      thanks for the explanation.i think the analogy is good, i just need to get my head around this sort of thinking and maybe keep my eyes peeled for situations like this. i'll post any hands i think are similar. ty