[NL2-NL10] nl5 QQ zoom

    • xero100
      xero100
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.08.2009 Posts: 1,355
      Poker Stars $5.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2188456
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      BTN: $8.15 - VPIP: 15, PFR: 9, 3B: 3, AF: 0,5, Hands: 74
      SB: $5.14 - VPIP: 14, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 8,0, Hands: 80
      BB: $5.05 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 17, 3B: 20, AF: 0,0, Hands: 12
      UTG: $5.52 - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 3
      MP: $6.34 - VPIP: 0, PFR: 0, 3B: 0, AF: 0,0, Hands: 1
      Hero (CO): $5.05 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 16, 3B: 5, AF: 4,1, Hands: 28079

      Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is CO with Q :spade: Q :club:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0.15, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.35

      Flop: ($1.05) A :club: T :heart: 2 :club: (2 players)
      SB bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

      Turn: ($2.45) 4 :spade: (2 players)
      SB bets $1.35, Hero folds
  • 10 replies
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Hi Xero,

      Preflop: We should 4-bet here preflop. Why do we just call?

      Postflop: In these positions I agree with your play even though villain seems tighter. Call one street and fold turn is fine.
    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      But why should we 4bet here? Given his stats he will hardly call OOP, it will be 5bet shove or fold from him, and in case he shoves we are hardly in a good shape vs his range though we will be forced to call in such a situation. Imho call IP here is better because it keeps his range wider and I doubt we have 4bet for value here.
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      Originally posted by GreenPiece
      But why should we 4bet here? Given his stats he will hardly call OOP, it will be 5bet shove or fold from him, and in case he shoves we are hardly in a good shape vs his range though we will be forced to call in such a situation. Imho call IP here is better because it keeps his range wider and I doubt we have 4bet for value here.
      Value in a 4-bet doesn't come just from you stacking off.

      You have to count the pots you win and even if he stacks off the usual QQ+, AK we still show a profit.
    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      Say he 3bets as wide as 5%, 88+, AJs+, KQs, AKo. It's 61 combinations with the card removal effect from our QQ (or 4.98% range).

      What is very likely scenario after our 4bet? I think it's either fold or push. Push will be done with QQ+, AK (29 combinations). So when we 4bet to 1.25$, he folds 32 combinations and continues with 29 against which we have 40% of equity.

      So we put 1.1$ (1.25$-0.15$) in the pot:
      1) to win 0.15$+0.5$+0.05$+1.1$ = 1.8$ (52.5% of cases)
      2) to play for 10.10$ with 40% of chances to win but with additional 3.8$ put in the pot (47.5% of cases)

      Let us count:
      • 1.8*0.525 = 0.945
      • 10.10*0.4 = 4.04; (4.04 - 3.8)*0.475 = 0.114
        -1.1 +(1.8)*0.525 +(10.10*0.4 - 3.8)*0.475 = -1.1 +0.945+0.114 = -0.041


      If I have done calculations properly it's a -EV situation.
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      Sample is too limited to make too much assumptions. Guess these guys will have JJ from time to time, and when it's 3-bet from these positions it's not impossible that there's some TT/AQs even in his 5-bet range.
    • GreenPiece
      GreenPiece
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      Well, I make assumptions on the available info, his PF stats are pretty nitty though the sample is somewhat low, of course we can make more dispersion moves being sure it isn't a huge mistake. But we have no info to assume he is laggy when making 3b\5b. We can make imho not so dispersion but still profitable move being sure we played it well not being on the edge.
    • Heffron89
      Heffron89
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.01.2009 Posts: 813
      Originally posted by CPallo
      Sample is too limited to make too much assumptions. Guess these guys will have JJ from time to time, and when it's 3-bet from these positions it's not impossible that there's some TT/AQs even in his 5-bet range.
      Since when do people 5bet stack off with TT and AQ? I have never in my life seen that from a random reg thats not extremely laggy
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      Originally posted by Heffron89
      Originally posted by CPallo
      Sample is too limited to make too much assumptions. Guess these guys will have JJ from time to time, and when it's 3-bet from these positions it's not impossible that there's some TT/AQs even in his 5-bet range.
      Since when do people 5bet stack off with TT and AQ? I have never in my life seen that from a random reg thats not extremely laggy
      Well, in positions at higher limits one must add those into range so we ain't exploitable. On micros I could see some good reg doing this on these positions, at least with AQ.
    • Heffron89
      Heffron89
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.01.2009 Posts: 813
      Originally posted by CPallo
      Originally posted by Heffron89
      Originally posted by CPallo
      Sample is too limited to make too much assumptions. Guess these guys will have JJ from time to time, and when it's 3-bet from these positions it's not impossible that there's some TT/AQs even in his 5-bet range.
      Since when do people 5bet stack off with TT and AQ? I have never in my life seen that from a random reg thats not extremely laggy
      Well, in positions at higher limits one must add those into range so we ain't exploitable. On micros I could see some good reg doing this on these positions, at least with AQ.
      Well a good player with a balanced 5bet range is not playing NL5..
    • BogdanPS
      BogdanPS
      Basic
      Joined: 12.05.2010 Posts: 27,588
      You are in a steal/re-steal spot and villain has shown aggro tendencies.

      So yes his range can definitely be wider than 5%. You are making assumptions about his range based on what? His 3-bet so far was 6% so it's more than 5% plus that counts all positions. So it's not hard to expect 6-8% 3-bet in the blinds.

      And with 5% you are looking at almost a break even play so 5.5 or 6% makes it a profitable play given your numbers.