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[NL2-NL10] NL10 SH speed: Q7s

    • acetbfish
      Joined: 11.03.2011 Posts: 804
      No reads on the BU.

      BB, in a small sample, seems to be calling a lot the flop cbets and fold to turn or river cbets (low WTSD).

      Grabbed by Holdem Manager
      NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
      Hero ($12.30)
      BB ($12.01)
      UTG ($4.15)
      UTG+1 ($3.25)
      CO ($15.91)
      BTN ($7.85)

      Dealt to Hero 7:heart: Q:heart:

      fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.25, Hero raises to $0.80, BB calls $0.70, fold

      FLOP ($1.85) K:spade: 4:heart: J:spade:

      Hero bets $1.30, BB calls $1.30

      TURN ($4.45) K:spade: 4:heart: J:spade: K:heart:

      Hero bets $2.90, BB calls $2.90

      RIVER ($10.25) K:spade: 4:heart: J:spade: K:heart: 9:heart:

      Hero bets $7.30 (AI),
  • 2 replies
    • GreenPiece
      Joined: 03.06.2010 Posts: 5,962
      I wouldn't bluff bet this hand here preflop. We can't say he will fold often enough to make it profitable right away. We are dominated by every Q in his calling range, and he will call looser after 3bet as he's IP. We can't rely on our flush strength as it is only Q-flush and no connected value we have. And we can't even cbet flop on A, K board profitably as he will have a lot of Ax, Kx hands in his range (like AT+, KTs, KJ+) and if we hit Q we rely on reverse implied odds as we can't get value from Ax and Kx (they will fold) and we get called we are value betting ourselves. And even BB seems fishy so he can probably call even our 3bet thus increasing chances BU will stay in the hand either.
    • kymupa
      Joined: 22.10.2009 Posts: 22,364

      I think that we can find better hands to 3bet bluff in this spot - which hands are you 3betting for value and which hands are you bluffing with?

      As played, just give up on this board. I see that you've gone for exploiting his leaks but this board hits his range pretty well and it would be hard to barrel him off.

      As played on the flop, since we picked up equity as well, betting the turn is fine.
      We can make it $2.5 here though, since I think it will generate the same fold equity here.