[NL2-NL10] NL10SH odd hand with A4 vs fish

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
      DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

      Hero (BTN): $10.98
      SB: $10.00
      BB: $7.32
      UTG: $10.73
      MP: $8.59
      CO: $21.98

      Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with 4 :spade: A :heart:
      1 fold, MP calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, MP calls $0.30

      Flop: ($0.95) 4 :diamond: K :club: K :diamond: (2 players)
      MP bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20

      Turn: ($1.35) 9 :heart: (2 players)
      MP bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

      River: ($2.35) A :club: (2 players)
      MP bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50

      fish is playing 90/30 on 20 hands so far. I am sometimes puzzled by this sort of situation.
  • 10 replies
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Hi.

      Flushdraws missed and his line doesnt make too much sense so ill just call down here like u did. Sometimes he may have stuff like midpairs on flop and turn but when the river improves us to top pair and he bets only 2/3 i dont see how we can fold. We should be ahead often enough to justify a call here
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      Pre-flop: fold, unless that fish folds to cbets a lot. A4 is not ahead of many hands and gets you into trouble post-flop.

      As played: He could have weak Kx's, weak pp's and some Ax hands, calling down isn't a bad option at all (unless he is very passive Post-flop).
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by CPallo
      Pre-flop: fold, unless that fish folds to cbets a lot. A4 is not ahead of many hands and gets you into trouble post-flop.

      To try and get a discussion going I'd like to respond to this point:

      I have t3h Ahi vs a fish and I have ultimate position vs a weak looking limping range. Its likely I play far better postflop here than him. I'm not exactly going to overvalue my showdown possibilities so what trouble am I going to get into? Even preflop if an aggressive reg tries to 3bet me light from the blinds I'll be able to deduce that it is a sufficient possibility from his stats and can achieve excellent FE with a 4bet.

      So if I'm Isolating what looks like a trashy hand such as A4o what sort of hands would I prefer to limp behind or, dare I say it, fold?

      To me, ideal candidates for limping behind would be small pocket pairs 22-55, some extremely speculative hands probably without high cards that I feel uncomfortable isolating with a possibility of reduced fold equity vs a loose/passive.... so lets say 85s or 34s or something where I'm just hoping to hit a flop and be able to cash in with my superior position.

      I'm still folding complete junk at the bottom of both suited and non-suited card ranges, 63s, 52s, 23o, I'm not raising Q2o or J2o and probably K4o either, I prefer to weight my range to Ax, high cards and suited cards.
    • CPallo
      CPallo
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      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      To try and get a discussion going I'd like to respond to this point:
      Discussion is +Ev, so let's continue:

      I have t3h Ahi vs a fish and I have ultimate position vs a weak looking limping range. Its likely I play far better postflop here than him. I'm not exactly going to overvalue my showdown possibilities so what trouble am I going to get into? Even preflop if an aggressive reg tries to 3bet me light from the blinds I'll be able to deduce that it is a sufficient possibility from his stats and can achieve excellent FE with a 4bet.
      I can see a small problem with thinking here. If he is a calling station, he might call a lot post-flop. When you isolate this hand, you are only a bit over 50 % favorite against range I gave him. We could drop off the top-range there, like AA/KK/QQ most of the time, but still it's not that much +EV: I'd be tempted to ISO with A7 if we have superior advantage post-flop. We can hit better mid-pairs and we have stronger top-pairs when hit. With A4 you are behind practically every Ax and you can't hit nothing strong, except the Wheel. These marginal situations should be avoided at this level, even on higher stakes.

      So if I'm Isolating what looks like a trashy hand such as A4o what sort of hands would I prefer to limp behind or, dare I say it, fold?
      I'd be tempted to fold A4 in this case, if off-suit. With suited hand I could limp behind or even isolate, if the fish is more to fit/fold type. I don't actually think that we should limp that many hands behind, maybe some weak suited connectors (34/56), but those are hands that I'm more likely to raise pre-flop because we are less likelier to get into trouble post-flop (you never play for big stack with top pair, 65, right?)


      To me, ideal candidates for limping behind would be small pocket pairs 22-55, some extremely speculative hands probably without high cards that I feel uncomfortable isolating with a possibility of reduced fold equity vs a loose/passive.... so lets say 85s or 34s or something where I'm just hoping to hit a flop and be able to cash in with my superior position.
      These are good. Against calling stations I agree that it's not a good idea to isolate with 22-55, they rarely hit a thing and villain won't fold a lot; we have to risk so much chips to make our bluffs to work.

      I'm still folding complete junk at the bottom of both suited and non-suited card ranges, 63s, 52s, 23o, I'm not raising Q2o or J2o and probably K4o either, I prefer to weight my range to Ax, high cards and suited cards.
      These hands are quite good to be folded, nothing good comes out of them =)

      And if the limper was there with like this 70 % of hands, then A4 plays against 70 % range:


                 Eq  Win  Tie
      CO     53.12%  50.49%   2.63% { A4o }
      BU     46.88%  44.24%   2.63% { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 84s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A2o+, K2o+, Q3o+, J5o+, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o }



      --> Marginal, I get into this a bit more a moment later :D
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Here is my retort :) Not going into position yet, just discounting the fact that he doesn't limp the top of his range.



      Board: n/a

      Equity Win Tie

      MP2 43.50% 40.56% 2.94% 77-22, A7s-A2s, K8s-K2s, Q9s-Q2s, J9s-J2s, T2s+, 92s+, 84s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A8o-A2o, K9o-K2o, Q9o-Q3o, J9o-J5o, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o

      MP3 56.50% 53.57% 2.94% A4o
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      Originally posted by DaPhunk
      Here is my retort :)



      Board: n/a

      Equity Win Tie
      MP2 43.50% 40.56% 2.94% 77-22, A7s-A2s, K8s-K2s, Q9s-Q2s, J9s-J2s, T2s+, 92s+, 84s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, A8o-A2o, K9o-K2o, Q9o-Q3o, J9o-J5o, T6o+, 96o+, 86o+, 76o
      MP3 56.50% 53.57% 2.94% A4o
      Good, you dropped the top-range. But against such a fish we can def. assume, that he might limp hands like 88-TT, too, and he might limp A8+, all the way to AK (coz AK/AQ are not "made" hands yet). We have to make assumptions, so it's very hard to play when we can't even determine the actual range for good. That's why I'm not a fan of A4o here
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Lol, I just finished reading your edited response that I saw after I finished editing mine :f_p: Nice to get some back and forth going! Good job on the quick reply.

      What I think I've realised is how close our actual isolating ranges for isolating here are, its just I'm slightly looser/more splashy than you it seems. I like to get into pots with Ahi in position versus fish because I think that in general they fold a lot more than we think until proven wrong and then our Ahi gives us a lot better chances of winning than we may think.

      In general players fold a lot more out of position than in position, and there are going to be a lot of dry flops where we will be able to bet as little as 1/2pot and get easily enough folds, depending on the villain we may be able to occasionally continue bluffing on turn or river as well.

      With a 1/2pot cbet we need 33% folds. If we now imagine a very loose/passive fish who has a fold to cbet of 30%, it is likely he folds say 20% to cbets in position and 40% out of position, which is going to start making our cbet nicely profitable and this is a fairly extreme case.

      Even when called on flop we still occasionally hit equity, If we bet a dry Khi flop and the turn is an A, that is actually a great spot vs a fish who seems sticky because we can actually get three streets of value out of Kx, and he has less Ax in his range, whereas on the flop where an A comes we are going to be a lot more worried about him having a better hand.

      Sorry, I seemed to go on a bit there, trying to explore some of the benefits I see of being in this spot.


      edit: forget to mention that postflop action doesn't end on flop. I routinely use info I collect on villains that determines how they play on turn and river. Most often I like to exploit the guys I think of as draw chasers who will fold an absolute ton on river.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      One more point that I shall put in another post:

      To truly know how good these spots are, I imagine we may need to get a large sample of played hands in holdem manager and filter for this situation to see how well we do. I wouldn't be surprised if selective memory is making both of us biased here.
    • CPallo
      CPallo
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.04.2012 Posts: 4,343
      Might be that we are visualizing "Fish" in a different way, so it affects conversation a little. You are right in many ways, against fit/fold fishes we can ISO wide and play it post-flop, as they often show off their hand strength somehow. Against stations, however, we can't iso so wide, because even folding pair of 2's might be impossible. And with A4o it's hard for us to value bet against them, and as they are often passive with top-pairs/mid-pairs, we would have to often barrel 3 streets to find out whether they had it or not. It gets expensive, so that's why I'd use tighter range.

      Against fit/folders, if we have position, we could ISO very wide, like K2o etc.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Ill sum this up quick

      If u think u have a huge edge, just isoraise. U will have position and initiative and your hand is probably a small fav vs a limp calling range. If u dont feel too comfortable with playing so loosely folding is fine. I would consider limping behind as well if raising isnt +ev.

      I wouldnt raise vs utg tight limpers as they will often limp/3bet. You also need to think abt the blinds. Would they call? Would they 3bet? Isoraising A4o is way different from K2o. A4o is within the top 40-45% of hands, K2o is probably top 65-70% and is way weaker.