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[NL20-NL50] [SH] NL25 QQ - Turned set valuebet on river third suit?

    • Csubakoppanny
      Joined: 14.12.2010 Posts: 4,265
      Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

      Hero (BTN): $33.03 (132.1 bb)
      SB: $31.83 (127.3 bb)
      BB: $24.68 (98.7 bb)
      UTG: $47.36 (189.4 bb)
      MP: $25 (100 bb)
      CO: $24.32 (97.3 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
      2 folds, CO calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, SB folds, BB calls $0.75, CO folds

      Flop: ($2.35) 9 T A (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $1.12, BB calls $1.12

      Turn: ($4.59) Q (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3.25, BB calls $3.25

      River: ($11.09) 2 (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $6.68, BB raises to $19.31 and is all-in, Hero calls $12.63

      $49.71 pot ($2.00 rake)
      Final Board: 9 T A Q 2
      Hero showed Q Q and lost (-$24.68 net)
      BB showed A 5 and won $47.71 ($23.03 net)

      Nowadays I had many problems in theese situations (against regs and fishes too), when I'm IP, I have a set and I can't decide whether I have calue in my bet... I'm afraid but also I don't want to leave value in the hand.
      It's a good example for this... and I think in this hand it's more a bet than a check.

      On the flop... the cbet could be a bit problematic, but he folds very often + there's a scarecard down + I have a :club: so I preferred betting.
      On the turn I'm happy... there I should bet bigger against him.
      And there comes the typical river, which gives me headache nowadays. However, I thought I could get calls from AX-es, slowplayed sets/two pairs (because he's a fish, so he can have them)... and he could turn theese hands into a bluff too (he's kinda semi-aggro), so I think it's an easy bet/c.
      One last reason is the mentioned Q :club: , which decreases the chances of flueshes... but it's also questionable how significant is that?
      So... what do you think about the whole situation... and theese spots in general?:)
      Thank you!
  • 1 reply
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Flop: i dont think u should bet here when there isnt too much value to be had. I prefer checking and inducing bluffs.

      Turn: standard bet. You should bet slightly larger on this coordinated board.

      River: i think u should bet fold unless u have reason to believe that he would turn some hands like AX into bluffs . I would half pot to ensure he continues calling with an ace but its an easy fold vs the cr cos he usually has a flush. Q being in our hand is fairly insignificant. The fish plays so many suited combos like J6s preflop. He seems passive too, or at least not aggro enough to bluff in these spots vs a 3barrel.