[NL20-NL50] 50NL T8s bluff-catch ?

    • dozeer
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      Full Tilt, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, Rush, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      Hero (BB): $127.70 (255.4 bb)
      UTG: $98.45 (196.9 bb)
      MP: $61.75 (123.5 bb)
      CO: $18.40 (36.8 bb)
      BTN: $22 (44 bb)
      SB: $63.20 (126.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with T 8
      UTG raises to $1.50, 4 folds, Hero calls $1

      Flop: ($3.25) 4 2 8 (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

      Turn: ($8.25) 5 (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG checks

      River: ($8.25) K (2 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $6


      1) Can I profitably bluff-catch here vs unknown ?

      My bluff-catch range OTR is something like 66-77, 98s,T8s, 99-TT and some JJ.

      He bets 6 into 8.25 so I shouldnt fold more than 42% - looks like T8s is a call in a vacuum

      2) Would your play differ on different river cards from J to A (non diamonds) if he bets same amount - I mean should I bluff-catch less on Ax rivers than Kx cos Ax hits his UTG range better?

      (pre-flop is not standard, I just decided to call cos we are deep, might be too loose tho..)

      Your thoughts ?

  • 2 replies
    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779

      Preflop: This looks really loose to me. I would probably fold here unless UTG has some sort of exploitable leak or you are certain that you have a decent edge vs him. I don't think the stack depth alone is a good reason to defend this hand.

      Flop and Turn: Standard c/c

      River: Just call - He is going to be bluffing here so often and it's not close at all.

      1. Yes you can and T8s is definitely in the top 58% of your range
      2. Ace rivers are much worse than King rivers but at the same time they get bluffed at way more often. The opposite is true for Jack rivers. This is highly dependent on villain's opening range, which you did not give any information about. Vs a 12% opening range I would usually fold River on an Ace, but vs an 18% range I would snap call river.
    • dozeer
      Joined: 25.07.2011 Posts: 186
      thanks man, pretty good post