[NL20-NL50] 25nl - T8s hit bd flush

    • nooni2k
      nooni2k
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.04.2012 Posts: 206
      Villain is playing 21/19 (850 hands)
      His cbet flop/rurn/river is - 84/38/0

      IPN (Boss Media) - €0.25 NL - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

      CO: €32.17
      Hero (BTN): €25.19
      SB: €30.45
      BB: €38.15
      UTG: €25.70

      SB posts SB €0.12, BB posts BB €0.25

      Pre Flop: (€0.37) Hero has T:club: 8:club:

      UTG raises to €0.71, fold, Hero calls €0.71, fold, fold

      Flop: (€1.79, 2 players) T:heart: K:club: 3:heart:
      UTG bets €1.34, Hero calls €1.34

      Turn: (€4.47, 2 players) 5:club:
      UTG bets €3.35, Hero calls €3.35

      River: (€11.17, 2 players) 2:club:
      UTG bets €8.00, Hero?


      Preflop - his open raise is only ~2.5x so I think calling is not terrible as I will have position with a hand that fops pretty well.

      Flop - don't see how I can fold as he will cbet this flop close to 100%. Raise maybe?

      Turn - he barrels pretty big but I pick up equity. Again, can't see how I can do anything but call. His turn cbet is low but I have good outs vs his value range I think? He can also be barrelling loads of gutshots/QJ.

      River - given that I hit the back door flush I think a shove here is better than a call because I can get value from his sets/2prs and sometimes even TPTK
  • 4 replies
    • pokerferrer
      pokerferrer
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.03.2008 Posts: 6,347
      I don't see any interesting questions here. On the river it is a pretty standart push for value.
      The other question, what if we don't hit river and he checks to us? We probably should bluff him off on any heart, ace and queen rivers.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      Hey,

      I think calling T8s here is too loose vs MP open. If it's CO it's doable. It also depends on who is in the blinds and what are the chances you get squeezed out of the pot.

      Given preflop play, flop and turn are fine. On the turn you obv face a good range imo, given what we know about the opponent but we have outs and can play rivers well.

      Now we do get to that river and it gets tough actually..

      First of all, I think folding is excluded... He bets worse for sure, we get the odds vs his range. The question is whether to raise or not. If we raise, I think this is kind of the range we get called by:


      Board: K:club: T:heart: 3:heart:  5:club:  2:club:
             Equity     Win     Tie
      MP2    33.33%  33.33%   0.00% { Tc8c }
      MP3    66.67%  66.67%   0.00% { KK, TT, AcQc, AcJc, QcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c }



      Keep in mind he is a reg, he won't just snap off 2pair and sets. I could be wrong about that since I am now relating to the tighter Stars regs, not IPN. Even if he would though, it would be very thin so my action would be to call.

      Notice his river cbet is 0 so far so when he bets the river he probably does it with a very strong range already.
    • nooni2k
      nooni2k
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.04.2012 Posts: 206
      Originally posted by pokerferrer
      I don't see any interesting questions here. On the river it is a pretty standart push for value.
      The other question, what if we don't hit river and he checks to us? We probably should bluff him off on any heart, ace and queen rivers.
      Whether or not you find it an interesting spot is irrelevant. I am a learning player, and this is a hand evaluation forum. Don't really know what else to say about that. If you have an opinion on the hand then instead of just stating it, try to actually justify it (as you have done pretty well on some of my previous hand eval posts)


      Regarding your second point I can see how this might work given what we'd be repping, so fair enough.


      @Manu

      Fair point about preflop, I do have squeeze stat visible on my HUD and like to check it when deciding whether to call in these kind of situations so I can only assume I judged it to be safe!

      Your assessment of his b/c range is a bit of an eye opener.... I realise now that there are loads more flush combos in his range than sets, so the shove is pretty thin.
    • EmanuelC16
      EmanuelC16
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2010 Posts: 13,897
      There might be some lower flush combos I missed but overall you still are not ahead when you shove and get called imo.. You need to have quite a crazy image to value shove here after 3 barrels imo.. :)